With Bayern Munich five points off the top of the Bundesliga, out of the cup and 1-0 down in their Champions League last 16 tie against Lazio, Thomas Tuchel’s job is under threat.
Tuchel has never really settled in Munich, not helped by an unbalanced squad, an incoherent transfer strategy and the underperformance of key German players like Joshua Kimmich and Serge Gnabry.
The favourite to replace Tuchel, especially if Bayern wait until the summer, is Xabi Alonso. His Bayer Leverkusen side are unbeaten in all competitions this season with a very good chance of completing at least a domestic double.
Yet a Bayern approach would clash with Liverpool‘s current plans – the Reds reportedly view Alonso as the ideal replacement for the outgoing Jurgen Klopp. This may well spark an arms race for the Spaniard, who played for both clubs and is unlikely to want to leave Leverkusen until the summer at the earliest.
Liverpool are also going to wait until they have hired a sporting director to make a decision on their next head coach, which could also open the window further for any other sides interested in his signature.
So, is there a genuine chance Bayern poach Alonso, or is he destined for the Anfield hotseat?
Would Alonso take the Bayern Munich job?
From the club’s point of view, Alonso would be the obvious choice to manage Bayern. He’s a former player who understands the pressures of representing the club first-hand, appreciates that winning is expected and losing is simply unacceptable.
Past that, he’s the most exciting managerial prospect in world football after less than two years in a senior role. He took Bayer Leverkusen from the relegation zone to the top of the Bundesliga within a year, so his tactical philosophy clearly works in Germany.
The biggest obstacles to this move would be a) timing and b) Liverpool. Understandably, Alonso seems clear he will not leave Leverkusen until he has enjoyed the rewards of this fantastic season, still in the hunt for the league, cup and Europa League.
If Tuchel leaves Munich before the end of this season, something which looks increasingly likely, then Bayern would have to at least bring in an interim head coach until the end of the season.
And even if Bayern wait, they could still lose out to Liverpool. Aside from being a better-run club with more lenient executives, Alonso has previously said his children are “little Scousers”. He feels more of a connection to the club at which he won the Champions League and the city where his children were born, and may see more longevity and excitement at Anfield than the Allianz.
But, there is still a chance Liverpool delay for too long and Bayern swoop. They will have the financial means and star power to attract Alonso, who could also feel more comfortable staying in the Bundesliga to continue his early development.
Who could Liverpool hire if Alonso goes to Bayern?
Roberto De Zerbi
De Zerbi seems to be the most popular second choice for the Liverpool job among fans, but it makes less and less sense the more you look at it. He is clearly a talented coach and has produced some excellent football with Brighton, but his approach is better suited to replacing Pep Guardiola than it would be Klopp.
The Italian has also been somewhat worked out so far this season, producing inconsistent results with an admittedly injury-stricken squad. While he will eventually be well suited for one of English football’s biggest jobs, he may still not quite be ready.
Ruben Amorim
Sporting Lisbon head coach Amorim is only 39, yet he is considered not just one of the brightest managerial prospects in Europe, but one of its best managers full stop.
His win percentage across four years in charge of Braga B, Braga and Sporting is a frankly ridiculous 70, a figure only topped by Pep Guardiola in Europe’s top seven leagues in the same period.
Read more about Amorim’s suitability for the Liverpool job here.
Julian Nagelsmann
Nagelsmann is currently interim head coach of Germany, but he will be available after the Euros.
This would be an appointment based on name more than actual suitability. Nagelsmann has a grand reputation based on his early success, but he was very unpopular at Bayern Munich and appeared to struggle with the weight of the job, having previously plied his trade with Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig.
He has only managed Germany for four games, but they have lost two of those and won just one.
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