The Champions League returns after its winter hiatus, with eight last-16 ties spread across four weeks.
The biggest clubs have largely been kept apart, with Red Bull Salzburg, Sporting Lisbon and Villarreal all seeking unlikely progression against European heavyweights – don’t hold your breath.
There is one huge exception to that format. Mauricio Pochettino was appointed by Paris Saint-Germain to win the Champions League but faces Real Madrid, the club many expect him to coach one day.
Is this Kylian Mbappe’s chance to rubber-stamp a move to Spain in the summer?
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The glamour tie, with both clubs cursing their misfortune to draw one another. Let’s frame this as a clash of opposites: heritage vs new money, grand Champions League history vs rampant European ambitions, the club that shunned its Galactico era vs the New Galacticos, the most successful manager in the modern history of this competition vs a man still fighting to prove that he belongs in the highest echelon of club management.
All that makes this tie almost impossible to call. For all the progress PSG have made in Europe, peaking with the two-leg win over Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals last season, the suspicion is that their seasons only come alive in the spring and it can take time for them to settle back into football that actually matters. Are they really ready to overcome such Champions League nous? And will the result of this tie decide the rest of Mbappe’s career?
Prediction: PSG just about get it done, probably with a Lionel Messi free-kick.
Sporting vs Man City
Six of Manchester City’s last seven last-16 draws in the Champions League: Dynamo Kiev, Monaco, Basel, Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach, Sporting. You make your own luck by winning your group, but City have handily sidestepped the best of the best at this stage. Sporting conceded nine goals in two group games against Ajax in the autumn and have dropped eight points in their last six Primeira Liga games. Their home record in Europe is generally excellent (bar the 5-1 defeat to Ajax in September), but City should have plenty enough to qualify.
One point of interest for neutrals is English winger Marcus Edwards, compared to Lionel Messi by Pochettino during his time at Spurs but allowed to leave after 15 first-team minutes. Sporting signed the winger from Vitoria de Guimaraes in January. He’ll probably start both ties from the bench, but Edwards is a potential game-changer.
Prediction: City win a tight away leg and then win by two goals at home.
RB Salzburg vs Bayern Munich
A big week for big fizzy energy, as Red Bull Salzburg become the second club under the umbrella to reach the knockout stages of the Champions League. Everything here fits the model perfectly: the 33-year-old manager, 14 of the 15 most regular appearance makers being aged under 25, the uber-dominance domestically. Having won each of the last five Austrian league titles by at least 12 points, it will be nice for Salzburg to have a little competition.
But probably too much competition. Bayern Munich haven’t lost to Salzburg’s bigger brother Leipzig in their last nine meetings and they aren’t about to let things slip here. Bayern have been eliminated once before the quarter-finals in the last 11 years and that was by eventual champions Liverpool. Salzburg’s young players will get a two-game shop window to push for significant summer moves, but expect this to be a comfortable passage for the second favourites.
Prediction: Bayern to win both legs with Robert Lewandowski scoring three times in the tie.
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Inter are the great underachievers of the Champions League. Since winning the trophy in 2010, they have only once got beyond the last-16 (losing 7-3 on aggregate to Schalke) and this season ended a run of three straight group-stage exits. Their league form has also dipped at a bad time, dropping seven points in three games against Atalanta, Napoli and Milan.
Inter are also playing a Liverpool team in rude health. Jurgen Klopp believes that this is the strongest squad he has ever managed, with Curtis Jones and Joe Gomez amongst the players who couldn’t even make the bench on Sunday. Klopp’s side scored at least twice in each of their six group games, including a 2-1 win in the San Siro over Milan. It’s hard to see them coming unstuck.
Prediction: Inter’s best bet is to try and keep it tight at home and nick an away goal at Anfield. With Salah and Mane back, that seems unlikely.
Chelsea vs Lille
The joy of Lille’s domestic success has quickly evaporated thanks to financial problems and the enforced sale of key assets. Jocelyn Gourvennec has taken over from Christophe Galtier, but Lille are tenth in Ligue 1 and lost Jonathan Ikone to Lazio in January.
Having benefited from a group-stage draw without a European heavyweight (Lille were the top seeds having won their domestic title), that run will surely come to an end against a Chelsea team for whom finishing second has not cost them.
Prediction: Chelsea to take a commanding first-leg lead, which proves enough.
Villarreal vs Juventus
Unai Emery must have come close to losing his job after Villarreal won three of their first 15 La Liga matches this season, but they are now three points off the top four and finished only a point behind Manchester United in Group F.
The same is true of Juventus, who are now fourth in Serie A and on an 11-match unbeaten league run. Having topped their group ahead of holders Chelsea (despite losing 4-0 at Stamford Bridge), Juventus have signed Dusan Vlahovic to solve their early-season goalscoring issues and will be heavy favourites.
Prediction: Juventus to win both legs, narrowly.
Atletico Madrid vs Man Utd
Having landed Paris Saint-Germain in the initial draw, there was little delight at Old Trafford at eventually learning that Atletico would be their last-16 opponents. Diego Simeone has earned a reputation as the great Champions League survivors, their defensive solidity frustrating higher-class opponents; Manchester United prefer to play those who make for an open game.
But there are fewer reasons for fear than normal. Atletico have lost their last four matches against English teams (twice vs Chelsea last season, twice in this season’s group stage against Liverpool) and their defending has fallen off a cliff. Currently fifth in La Liga, Simeone’s team have the worst defensive record in the top half.
Prediction: If they can stay in the tie in Spain, United can progress. Time for Ronaldo to step up.
Benfica vs Ajax
The tie of the round, if you’ll bear with me. Hailing from perceived lesser European leagues, and thus subject to vultures circling around every mega-talent they unearth or develop, Ajax and Benfica are European Cup heavyweights fighting for relevance in the super club era.
Benfica have reached the quarter-finals once since 2012 and are way off the pace in Portugal, making Ajax favourites thanks to their nonsensically strong defensive record that has seen them concede nine goals in their last 44 Eredivisie matches. Having one of them in the quarter-finals is something to celebrate.
Prediction: Ajax draw the away leg and win at home.
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