The Premier League’s relegation battle enters its final fortnight with three teams desperately scrapping to avoid what would be a chastening drop into the Championship.
For Burnley, relegation could spell financial disaster. They would be forced to pay back a large chunk of a £65m debt their owners secured against the club when completing their takeover.
For Leeds United, the drop would likely trigger a fire sale of star players like Kalvin Phillips, who turned down big-money moves last summer, Patrick Bamford and Raphinha at a rate not seen since they last slumped into the Championship back in 2004.
And while Everton would perhaps avoid the depths of the mire potentially awaiting their two relegation rivals, dropping into the Championship certainly wouldn’t aid their new stadium development, or inspire much confidence in the Frank Lampard regime.
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It’s largely been a season to forget for all three teams – regardless of where they finish in the table. Here, i takes a look at what each team needs to survive the dreaded drop…
Premier League relegation battle
- 15th Southampton – Played 36, 40pts, -20 GD
- 16th Everton – Played 34, 35pts, -19 GD
- 17th Burnley – Played 35, 34pts, -17 GD
- 18th Leeds – Played 35, 34pts, -35 GD
Burnley
The Clarets’ mini-revival under Mike Jackson came to an end with Saturday’s defeat to Aston Villa – but the 10 points picked up in 14 days during April have given Burnley a very credible chance of remaining in the top flight.
The fight began with that gritty draw at West Ham, before wins over Southampton, Wolves and Watford. Remarkably, it’s been both prettier and more effective that the Sean Dyche brand of football Turf Moor was graced with for years prior to the manager’s sacking.
“If I was going to take any group into this [situation] it would be them,” Jackson said after the loss to Villa. “I said that before the Watford game and my thoughts haven’t changed on that.”
Wout Weghorst, Jay Rodriguez and Maxwel Cornet have spearheaded the revival. Safety is now in Burnley’s hands – and they will hope to secure at least three points from their remaining three fixtures.
Burnley have faced both Tottenham and Newcastle in the league and EFL Cup already this season, Ben Mee’s winner in the 1-0 result over Spurs coming just when they needed it most in this relegation scrap.
Still, it could well come down to that final-day encounter with Newcastle and former striker Chris Wood, who was sold to the newly-minted Toon for £25m, a move many considered to have been as much about acquiring the striker as depriving their rivals of his services.
Burnley remaining fixtures
- Tottenham (a) – 15 May
- Aston Villa (a) – 19 May
- Newcastle (h) – 22 May
Leeds
One can point to severe injuries, a lack of investment in the summer and a steadfast refusal to play anything but Bielsa Ball all the way up to the Argentine’s sacking as reasons for Leads United’s demise this season.
But it all boils down to one thing: Leeds, unlike last term, have barely posed a threat to opposition defences in 2021-22.
The stats make for grim reading. Leeds have beaten just three top-half teams all season – West Ham, Wolves and Crystal Palace – and have been roundly thumped by the traditional Big Six: a combined 40 goals conceded against the two Manchester clubs, Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea. Oh, and they still have to face Chelsea one last time on Wednesday. The -35 goal difference is effectively a point lost and could threaten Leeds’ survival, with Burnley’s current floating on -17.
Leeds boss Jesse Marsch strung together a five-game unbeaten streak between mid-March and mid-April – but it came at the exact time Burnley triggered their revival, and Everton have also picked up points this spring.
The Whites will hope to have Bamford fit for their last two games of the season, against Brighton and Brentford, but Luke Ayling is now suspended for these remaining fixtures following his red card at the Emirates.
Neither Brighton nor Brentford have anything to play for other than league position, and both secured draws with Leeds earlier in the season. But single points may not be enough for Marsch’s side now. If Burnley are to be expected to win at least one last fixture, Leeds realistically need four points to avoid the possibility of being relegated on goal difference.
Leeds remaining fixtures
- Chelsea (h) – 11 May
- Brighton (h) – 15 May
- Brentford (a) – 22 May
Everton
If Everton stay up to fight another day it’s hard to see how Frank Lampard keeps his job. The ex-Chelsea manager was drafted in to sort out the mess left by Rafa Benitez, but has struggled to turn things around at Goodison Park.
Everton have been woeful at times this season but their recent response to the threat of relegation has come in the form of an almighty dog fight to escape their situation. Recent wins over Manchester United and Chelsea were not forecast but were still gratefully received up in Merseyside.
Richarlison is back to his scoring best when the team needs him most – and suddenly there’s a spirit within the Toffees ranks.
Everton’s win over Leicester on Sunday means not only do they now sit a point ahead of safety, but they also have a game in hand over Burnley and Leeds. Lampard’s men arguably have the “easier” fixtures too, with already-relegated Watford up next on Wednesday.
Win that and secure three points at home to either Brentford or Crystal Palace and Everton could even guarantee another season in the top flight before the last weekend of the campaign.
Everton fixtures remaining
- Watford (a) – 11 May
- Brentford (h) – 15 May
- Crystal Palace (h) – 19 May
- Arsenal (a) – 22 May
Southampton
Saints have never really been in this relegation scrap but their slump since the beginning of March has been alarming. Seven league defeats and just five points earned from a possible 30 means Southampton can still mathematically go down.
So can Leicester – who sit two points ahead of Saints but who are almost surely safe, considering the games they have in hand.
Southampton boss Ralph Hasenhuttl won’t be able to sleep easy for a few days yet, partially because those teams below his club all have additional games to play.
Yet six points is the advantage right now and Southampton will believe they can pick up at least one more point before the season is out. They may not get anything against Liverpool on 17 May but a draw against Leicester on the last day and surely, surely they can’t be caught… can they?
Southampton fixtures remaining
- Liverpool (h) – 17 May
- Leicester (a) – 22 May
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