Austerity is over and the transfer market is about to come roaring back.
That’s the message rebounding around recruitment circles as the transfer window waits in the wings, ready to snatch back the headlines after Sunday’s dramatic Premier League denouement plays out.
“I don’t think I’ve ever known a summer when so many top-class players are available,” says one recruitment official just off the phone to an agent trying to place a striker from France in the Premier League.
“It must feel like Christmas Eve to the elite clubs because the market is heating up and if you’re right at the top, there’s no reason to believe you can’t get yourself a world-class talent this summer.”
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Paul Pogba, Kylian Mbappe, Jesse Lingard, Paulo Dybala, Ousmane Dembele and Gareth Bale represent a galaxy of stars who are available as free agents.
But there is also a carousel of Premier League players who are publicly still billed as key men for their clubs but understood to be available at the right price, including but not limited to Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin and Leeds midfielder Kalvin Phillips.
For sharp recruitment teams – or teams prepared to push the boat out – the potential to make a game-changing leap this close season is an enticing one.
i spoke to agents, executives and recruitment officials and the common consensus is this: it’s a combination of factors colliding to make this potentially a summer like no other.
Thanks to a slew of improved overseas TV deals signed by the Premier League last year, there will be a steep increase in prize money from the 2022-23 season, and that is part of the reason being cited for an improved transfer market. In 12 months’ time the club that finishes in 20th will bank £100million just for passing go – an insurance policy that is likely to encourage investment. The champions will take home an eye-watering figure that will be close to £180million.
Experts are also pointing to new Fifa caps on the number of players clubs are allowed to loan out as a potential ‘game changer’ in the market. From next season only eight senior players will be able to go out on loan (which will reduce to six by 2024) and that is likely to create more competition for the best young British talent because homegrown and under-21 players are exempt from the rules.
“The new FIFA caps and clubs finally having got to grips with Brexit are going to impact this market – clubs know where they can look now and are familiar with Brexit points system so have refined those processes,” an industry insider explains to i.
After clubs in France and Italy were hit hard by the pandemic, which saw their TV deals collapse, there are signs the European market is heating up again too, which means clubs in the big five leagues are more likely to sell because they, in turn, will find it easier recruit.
This virtuous circle will inevitably lead to more ‘mid market’ talent being available and – in the words of one market watcher – more rough diamonds available to clubs who recruit well and with an eye on doing things differently, like Brentford and Leicester.
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“I think we’ll have a bumper year and be back to where we were a few years ago,” Jeremy Steele of football analytics company Analytics FC told the i. They run TransferLab, a data-driven recruitment service used by clubs across the Continent. Take up for that has ramped up, a sign that deals will be done.
Steele continues: “All the signs are that we’re getting back to the levels we were at pre-pandemic across Europe. The underlying numbers might not be great for some of those clubs but they’re planning with confidence that things are bouncing back and that means the transfer market is going to be buoyant again.”
Sporting directors and chief scouts are rarely off their phones in the days leading into the transfer window opening.
This is the point when chatter starts to intensify and names start to seep into the consciousness of scouts, agents and executives.
Here’s one for starters – Benfica’s Alejandro Grimaldo who, it’s widely understood, is available to Premier League clubs in desperate need of a left-back this summer. His current club know this and are casting about for high-quality replacements.
At 26 and with Champions League pedigree on his CV, there’s a compelling sales pitch to be made for Grimaldo, who might also end up at Barcelona. It’s understood he’s already been offered to one forward-thinking Premier League club.
The chatter in recruitment circles is about exactly what sort of changes Erik Ten Hag is going to make at Manchester United, while there is a keen interest in what a post-takeover Chelsea will look like.
Newcastle are being tipped to spend again, even if the club is circulating the message that they will not spend as freely as is assumed. “That really is the message and they’ve been consistent on that so I think it’s right,” one agent told i of a conversation with the Magpies’ Head of Recruitment Steve Nickson. “But if push comes to shove, is it a bluff? No club wants to be burdened with the idea that they’ve got enough money to pay whatever the selling club wants.”
One Premier League executive identified the five teams most likely to define the market as Manchester United, Spurs (“Antonio Conte will manage to twist their arm,”), Newcastle, Aston Villa (“They’ve got a lot of money and big ambitions,” he said) and Chelsea – although that comes with that dash of takeover-related uncertainty.
Of the big guns, Manchester City and Liverpool will make “one or two statement signings” but he believes they have brokered two of their biggest deals already with Erling Haaland and Luis Diaz, fast-tracked from January, respectively. “Those are two incredibly serious clubs and they won’t just see something in the market and go for it,” he said. “City might take a risk – look at them making a play for Cristiano Ronaldo last year or going for Pogba this time around – but it’s very methodical.”
What of the rest?
Steele says Leeds “will have to spend” if they stay up given the size of their squad and issues it has caused. They are understood to have devised their own version of scouting ‘Google’ with analytics company Statsbomb, which enables them to carry out quick searches based on their recruitment preferences. Although given their current predicament that might be cold comfort for many fans. Fulham and Bournemouth have resources too.
For all the belief that big cheques will be written, there’s a consensus that Declan Rice won’t be going anywhere. The widely quoted £150million fee is just a front for West Ham refusing to countenance a sale this summer.
Similarly, Jude Bellingham will stay with Borussia Dortmund, ramping up the intrigue for 2023 when both are edging towards the end of their contracts.
Steele believes that the buoyant transfer market will kick-start the market for club acquisitions too. “It’s a sign of confidence in the game, isn’t it?” he says.
Analytics FC runs a club acquisition service and he says interest from America in the Premier League and Championship is as strong as ever.
“We’ve got two dual markets at the moment – one for clubs and one for players. The player one is going to be a bumper one this summer and the club one is going to be the same,” he says.
“Look at the Americans investors who are interested at the moment. They’re not going anywhere, they still want to be part of it.”
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