If we are about to enter the age of Premier League dominance in the Champions League, the explanation has repeatedly slapped us in the face this summer.
We knew that English clubs would spend more than their European peers thanks to financial crisis-proof broadcasting revenues. The Premier League increasingly exists on its own raft of wealth and it is floating further and further into the open ocean.
Still, the economic gap is so stark that it catches you off guard. This summer, the five non-Premier League quarter-finalists in the Champions League had a net spend on transfer fees of roughly -£30m.
The three Premier League representatives had a net spend of roughly £175m. Add in Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal and that rises to just under £400m. The rest of Europe cannot keep up.
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That said, that dominance has been thwarted by three super clubs over that decade: Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Barcelona. For different reasons, it is hard to predict that block on the formation of a one-nation dynasty lasting.
Where the Premier League really is dominating is in the depth of their financial might. Germany, France and Spain each have leagues in which wealth is skewed significantly to one club (or in the case of Spain, two or three). That domestic power allows them to fund Champions League campaigns that have resulted in final appearances.
But the Premier League has had four different representatives in the European Cup final over the last five years. Nobody else can cope with that: four Spanish clubs have reached the final since 2001, four Italian since 1992, four German since 1983 and four French since 1976. It is only their superpowers who can cope.
And how quickly does that list of potential contenders get whittled down? No Serie A team has made the final since 2017. Barcelona have staked their long-term future on short-term success but even reaching the semi-finals would be a significant achievement.
Bayern haven’t reached the last four in either of the last two years. Atletico Madrid haven’t done so in half a decade. In their place, it is the consistency of the Premier League’s financial elite that is best placed to fill the gap and make it their home.
So which of this year’s four English teams has the best chance of making it to the final?
Man City
Champions League success remains the final unconquered land of Manchester City’s ownership. Supporters may feel less enthused by Uefa’s fiefdom as domestic dynasties, but that in part acts as a psychological deflection from painful exits. Having reached the semi-finals in 2016, the assumption was that City’s coaching brilliance and wealth would eventually tell. They have got to one semi-final and one final since.
The signing of Erling Haaland was crucial, not because it allowed City to trample over promoted teams in the Premier League but because he can be their difference maker in Europe.
Haaland has repeatedly scored above the quality of his chances, reflective of a player who can pull a tie towards his team. Haaland has also played six knockout Champions League matches and scored six goals in them. He is ready.
Group G
- Dortmund
- FC Copenhagen
- Man City
- Sevilla
Finally, Haaland reduces the chances of Pep Guardiola falling foul of his own tendency to complicate City’s Champions League plans. We don’t need to spend pre-match minutes working out who will be up front when you have the best young centre forward on the planet.
Liverpool
Three European Cup finals in five years is a consistent run that the Liverpool glory teams of the 1980s never managed to eclipse. Liverpool have become the leader of the Premier League’s rush for European dominance.
Their group stage is the toughest of any English team, not least because it involves trips to stadiums who will welcome them with feverish atmospheres, but Jurgen Klopp’s side won all six group matches last year and will not be unnerved.
Klopp has also proven himself to be a particularly effective coach when his teams have a carrot: European Cup victory in 2019 after losing the previous year, Premier League title immediately after being pipped by Manchester City in 2019, two cup wins and a final after their comparatively fallow, injury-affected 2020-21.
Group A
- Ajax
- Liverpool
- Napoli
- Rangers
After losing the final in Paris in extraordinarily difficult circumstances for supporters, Klopp will be deeply motivated to atone in the same stadium as their 2005 miracle.
Chelsea
You can make a pretty good argument that Thomas Tuchel has turned Chelsea into an elite cup team. Since the beginning of last summer, Chelsea have spent £350m on a team that finished fourth in the season before he joined and taken the same number of points as Arsenal and fewer than Tottenham, Manchester City and Liverpool. He’s also won the Champions League, Uefa Super Cup and Club World Cup and taken Chelsea to three domestic finals.
If Tuchel is still getting to grips with the shape and style of a new look team in the Premier League, a gentle Champions League draw may allow Chelsea to coast through to the knockout stages, by which point he will have a handle on the issues. Which all makes Chelsea very dangerous in the spring.
Group E
- Chelsea
- Dinamo Zagreb
- Red Bull Salzburg
- AC Milan
Tottenham
Antonio Conte’s dismal Champions League record is no secret, having won 12 of his 54 matches in the competition and only once winning a knockout tie (with Juventus against Celtic in 2013).
But Tottenham’s new squad depth makes the case that Conte must manage an attempted title challenge alongside a meaningful push into the latter stages of the Champions League. Conte has sometimes struggled without a full midweek on the training ground; that isn’t really going to fly here.
Group D
- Frankfurt
- Marseille
- Sporting
- Tottenham
Tottenham’s group stage draw helps a touch. They drew the second lowest-ranked team in Pot One (Eintracht Frankfurt) and the second lowest-ranked team in Pot Three (Sporting). Marseille are a dangerous bottom seed, but Spurs have a chance to pick up points quickly and early and then rotate players in their last two fixtures.
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