There are almost two months until the World Cup in Qatar and yet England have played their final fixture before they face Iran on 21 November.
After an international break that contained 15 minutes of attacking football and yet still managed to end with some cheer, Gareth Southgate surely knows most of the 26 men who will comprise his final England World Cup squad.
Can anything change his mind from now on?
Here’s who we think will be on the plane:
Goalkeeper
Jordan Pickford’s injury at least gave us a brief hiatus from people angrily insisting that he shouldn’t be England’s No 1 goalkeeper, despite a) him never really doing anything wrong for England and b) his distribution being better than any of the competitors for his place.
Of that competition, Nick Pope was seemingly second choice behind Pickford after starting against Italy and Germany, but may actually have played himself out of contention after a shocking night at Wembley. His distribution was continuously panicky, he almost got tackled in the first half and he spilt the ball from a regulation diving save for Germany’s equalise to dampen unexpected euphoria..
That makes a difference. Before the start of this season, Aaron Ramsdale was a cert to be in the squad (and was probably ahead of Pope), but Dean Henderson has left Manchester United’s naughty step for Nottingham Forest and saved both of the penalties he has faced since.
Given that Pickford won England a penalty shootout in the last World Cup, this might make no difference at all. But if Gareth Southgate is considering taking a penalty specialist, it could complicate the conversation. Have Ramsdale and Henderson moved up the queue simply by not playing?
Our picks (based on what we think Southgate will do): Pickford, Ramsdale, Pope
Right wing-back
I know it’s hardly a majority opinion and you can make a case that failing to make room for him is a black mark against Southgate’s name, but it’s not that surprising that Trent Alexander-Arnold isn’t central to England’s plans.
Southgate is presumably picking on three factors: club form (although this is probably the least important of the three), international form and positional versatility given that there is a chance England switch between a back three and back four at the upcoming World Cup depending on the opposition. Alexander-Arnold doesn’t really match up on any of them.
If that’s partly down to lack of opportunity, England’s manager has more options in this position than any other. Reece James has typically played well for his country, Kieran Trippier can play on the left or right and Kyle Walker can play as the right-sided centre-back if England switch to a three.
I understand that Alexander-Arnold is a wonderful talent. I understand that other managers might build a team around his crossing. But given the defensive deficiencies that have pockmarked his start to this season, I’m not quite sure his non-selection needs to become a national obsession.
Our picks: James, Walker, Trippier
Left wing-back
Probably the simplest part of the team, for which Southgate will presumably be thankful. That said, with Tyrell Malacia and Marc Cucurella arguably first choice at Manchester United and Chelsea, England do face the prospect of heading into a World Cup without either of their left wing-backs having much football at club level.
Of the two, Luke Shaw probably just nudges ahead of Ben Chilwell because he started at the last tournament, was largely dependable then and demonstrated against Germany in the second half that he can be more dangerous going forward.
The Italy defeat probably marks the end of the Bukayo Saka as a wing-back experiment. It isn’t where he plays for Arsenal and it isn’t a role he seems to particularly enjoy. If Saka is to start, it would be higher up the pitch, just as he did against Germany in the final 20 minutes.
Our picks: Shaw, Chilwell
Centre-back
Southgate came into this international break faced with two options. Either he chose to rebuild his defence, dropping the players who had served him well but fallen out of favour at club level, or he stuck with them and backed them to regain confidence through the familiarity of the group.
We should not be surprised, nor outraged, that Southgate has chosen the second option. Had Harry Maguire fallen out of favour at Manchester United at the beginning of last season he may have also lost his England position. As it is, Southgate has enough to think about without overhauling the weakest area of his team on the eve of a major tournament.
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But having stuck with Maguire, and said he would stake his own reputation on him coming good, Southgate watched on as Maguire was responsible for England conceding twice against Germany. For the first goal he misplaced a pass and gave away a penalty; for the second he tried to drive forward and lost possession.
And now it’s probably too late to do anything but stick with your plan. Fikayo Tomori is not suddenly going to start. Lewis Dunk is not going to walk into St George’s Park and ask “What has two thumbs and is here to win a World Cup?”. So that leaves familiar names that raise familiar grumbles. Maguire, John Stones and Eric Dier are certainties, Marc Guehi appears to be the preference ahead of Tomori and Conor Coady continues to be England’s squad mascot/hype man. Yes, it keeps me up at night too.
Our picks: Maguire, Stones, Dier, Guehi, Coady
Central midfield
We’ll give Southgate the benefit of the doubt and trust that he would have picked Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice as a midfield pairing even if Kalvin Phillips hadn’t suffered another shoulder injury. With Phillips requiring surgery, it seems certain that he will miss Qatar.
That makes the squad selection fairly straightforward. Jordan Henderson will likely go as experience and squad ballast, while Mason Mount can play in a midfield three if England want to be more expansive, or further up the pitch if they want cover.
Taking only four players for these two positions might seem a risk (and maybe James Ward-Prowse gets the nod over one of the attacking midfielders), but then Southgate is going to start both of Rice and Bellingham in every game if they are fit. They are young, they are multi-faceted and they are brilliant.
Our picks: Bellingham, Rice, Mount, Henderson
Wide forward
It’s amazing how quickly and seamlessly a squad begins to take shape as you near a tournament. The difficult decisions are mitigated slightly by the increase to 26-man squads, but you could confidently pick at least 21 of Southgate’s squad now.
The uncertainty is mostly focused in these winger or wide forward positions. It goes without saying that Raheem Sterling, Jack Grealish, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka are going and Southgate will look to use each of them in every game, be it as starters or substitutes. That probably leaves two more places.
Jarrod Bowen was named in this squad but didn’t come on against Italy, didn’t make the squad against Germany and isn’t in any form at Premier League level; he can be dropped for Marcus Rashford, presuming that his Manchester United renaissance continues at the same pace.
Including Jadon Sancho would probably be taking one too many wide players, but he offers something different to all the others in the list below, is also looking happier at club level and has grown up or developed with so many other players in this squad. Sancho may be the biggest beneficiary of the increased squad sizes.
Our picks: Sterling, Foden, Grealish, Saka, Rashford, Sancho
Striker
We need to say nothing about Harry Kane other than that England’s chances of reaching the semi-finals in Qatar drop so rapidly if he gets injured that we don’t really want to even think about it. He is England’s best player, he will soon become our record goalscorer and there are still some football supporters who continue to underestimate his excellence. They are fools.
Behind Kane, there really should be stiff competition and yet that’s got a little lost along the way. Ollie Watkins is the only other striker outside the current squad to receive a call-up in the last 12 months. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Patrick Bamford and Danny Ings have been broken by poor form or nagging injury problems, leaving Tammy Abraham as an autopick and Ivan Toney as the master of timing.
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Although we still think that Southgate might pick both backups centre forwards, there’s an alternative plan that sees Rashford included as one of them and Toney or Abraham sacrificed for the extra central midfielder, probably James Ward-Prowse.
Our picks: Kane, Abraham, Toney
Manager
There was never any chance that Southgate would be sacked before the World Cup. He has too much goodwill within the Football Association for the manner in which he took over from Sam Allardyce (but really Roy Hodgson) on a temporary basis, accepted the job on a full-time basis and then led England to two of the best four major performances in their history.
That seems perfectly reasonable. I fully understand that you don’t turn to social media for reason, that Southgate may not be a master tactician and that results have regressed over the past 12 months, but Southgate has changed the culture of this England team. He has also changed their reputation in the public’s consciousness after the grim underachievement of a gold-plated generation. The players enjoy his management. That will not be the deciding factor in winning the World Cup, but it should at least earn him the chance to try.
He is clearly not perfect. England have an issue with starting games slowly and not playing at pace until they are chasing a game, but both of those relate to the fear about getting caught on the counter. To all those who claim that this is England’s most talented squad in a generation and use that mistruth as a stick to beat Southgate with, I give you: Gary Neville, Rio Ferdinand, Sol Campbell, Ashley Cole. These defensive options don’t come close and that has provoked some risk-averse tactics that occasionally spill over into unhelpful lethargy.
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The Nations League has not been kind to Southgate. Every other England manager has warmed up for a major tournament with a series of friendlies that include gentle opponents. We spent so long demanding the end of meaningless friendlies that we forgot how important the meaningful ones can be when you need a pre-tournament confidence boost. Rather than playing Canada and Iraq, England had to play the European champions in Milan and Germany at Wembley three days later. Two defeats would leave England’s mood desperately low.
That mood was salvaged in the final 20 minutes at Wembley, not least because it offered evidence to Southgate that his team is more threatening when the tempo quickens and midfielders push high up the pitch. It was reassuring too that Mount and Saka, two young substitutes, changed the game. England have multiple options across the pitch that can make a difference deep into a tournament played in high temperatures.
If you’ll forgive the wild optimism, that might put England in a perfect position. The run of six matches without a win and Nations League relegation have reduced expectations that were sky high prior to Euro 2020. The late salvo against Germany left a sweet taste in the mouth after another sour international break. England’s players understand that Southgate will be sacked if they underperform in Qatar. They have a relatively gentle group-stage draw. Are these not excellent conditions for something special to build?
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