It was Dean Smith who first mentioned the club’s “five-year plan” to rejoin Europe’s elite. The former Aston Villa manager, who guided them back into the Premier League three years ago, mentioned the ambition during an interview in 2020, and it has taken hold amongst the club’s fans.
How much have those plans been set back by the appointment of Steven Gerrard and an 11-month spell that can only be described as a failure? The club’s owner, Nassef Sawiris, stormed out of the directors’ lounge during the defeat to Fulham that has left Villa on the brink of the bottom three. Gerrard’s recently appointed captain John McGinn described as “embarrassing to be part of”.
It’s easy to see why Christian Purslow, Villa’s chief executive who has most day-to-day control at the club, went for Gerrard, a Liverpool and England legend whose managerial career got off to a flyer at Rangers.
But the Premier League is an unforgiving place, uninterested in reputations or prior records, a devourer of pride and egos. And critics believe that Gerrard found himself out of his depth.
So where does it leave Villa, now? The only way to break into European football’s elite is via an owner’s deep pockets, but when money is lumped on an outside bet that gamble carries with it a high degree of risk.
Expenditure on players has reached almost half a billion pounds since Villa ended three years out of the top-flight in 2019. Some of that has been offset by the £100m sale of Jack Grealish to Manchester City, and another £30m made from trading Carney Chukwuemeka to Chelsea and Matt Targett to Newcastle. But it can’t go on for ever. Even the executives have conceded this point.
The signing of Philippe Coutinho, a fallen giant at Barcelona, was an initial glimpsing success under Gerrard and was seen as essential to attracting players of a similar ilk with the promise of future European football. It has meant, however, that wages have crept higher and higher, and it soon all adds up.
In the club’s latest available end-of-year accounts, up to the end of May 2021, they had reduced pre-tax losses from £99.5m the previous year to £37.3m. And that was for the accounting period just before they sold Grealish. Even so, during the pandemic-effected years the owners injected £97m into the club by way of new shareholder equity, so it can be hard to tell how stable the Aston Villa economy really is.
Plans have been submitted to increase Villa Park — the club’s stadium — to more than 50,000 capacity, while planning permission has already been granted for a new satellite academy at nearby Brookvale.
It’s great to see a club’s owners and executives so invested in restoring one of the country’s most successful clubs to its former glory. But that has to be weighed with protecting its more immediate future.
Villa have shifted their approach to acquiring talent that might just work. After the churn and burn of players in the past three years, they are trying to recruit younger players on longer contracts to maximise value for money. They want two players capable of competing for each position and don’t want to splurge money on expensive signings who can’t find Champions League clubs. So not another Coutinho.
For now though, who the next manager is will be crucial to steering the club away from the catastrophe of relegation that would mean they might as well feed the five-year plan through the office shredder.
Obvious names have been highlighted — it would be strange if Villa weren’t considering Mauricio Pochettino and Thomas Tuchel, two world-leading managers who are currently unemployed. But the chances seem unlikely. Pochettino is thought to want another crack at the Premier League but is happy to bide his time. And, truthfully, Villa feels a little beneath them both. Graham Potter would’ve been ideal, but Chelsea pounced first.
Whatever the outcome, the club needs to get the appointment right. Or they could be looking back in 2025 from outside the Premier League wondering where it all went so wrong.
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