We all assumed it would take longer than this.
Newcastle were 19th a year ago, suddenly cash rich but points poor. Eddie Howe was clumsily failing to defend his decision to take football’s most controversial job. Joelinton was an abject failure of modern scouting. Fans were oblivious that a 1-1 draw with Manchester United would hail the arrival of a nine-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League.
Now, the Magpies know that beating Arsenal at the Emirates, something no team has done in the Premier League since April 2022, would rubber stamp their credentials as equals rather than upstarts, one of England’s best teams rather than just one of the teams in the best form.
In the next week, Newcastle visit Premier League leaders Arsenal, have an FA Cup third round clash with Sheffield Wednesday and then a Carabao Cup quarter-final against Leicester.
So by next Tuesday evening, Eddie Howe’s Magpies could be six points off the top of the Premier League and in the League Cup semi-final. With Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea out of the Carabao, only the two Manchester giants block the path to a first major trophy on Tyneside since 1955.
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Just three Premier League sides since 2009-10 have had a better defensive record the Newcastle’s 11 goals conceded after 17 matches. Manchester City’s title-winning squads of 2018-19 and 2021-22 and Liverpool’s 97-point second-placed campaign in 2018-19 are not bad company. They have lost just one game (in the 98th minute) and are 14 games unbeaten.
A team’s shift from “surprise package” to “genuine title contenders” is often imperceptible and most sides hope to fly under the radar of genuine respect for as long as possible.
But if Newcastle beat Arsenal, they lose that privilege. There will be discussions of a “Big Seven”, pundits screeching incredulously “they could do it, you know”, and a definite mentality shift at St James’ Park.
Of course, while teams pretend that nothing changes in these moments, players and managers are humans too. The club will need to delicately manage a mentality shift from also-rans to front runners, do everything they can to tread the infinitesimal line between confidence and arrogance.
For Arsenal, victory could take them 10 points clear of Manchester City after 17 games. Regardless of this result, Mikel Arteta has a similar war to wage at the Emirates. Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard appear to possess admirable levels of humility, but keeping this squad, and their fanbase, at least loosely tethered to Planet Earth after a decade-long “banter era” is perhaps Arsenal’s most pressing challenge.
Backed by the richest owners in world football, this may well be just the beginning for Newcastle. A Champions League spot at the end of the season would provide carte blanche to throw a blank cheque at football’s finest talents.
When Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) bought Newcastle, we all knew that this moment would come eventually. Success is football is buyable, especially when you have the PIF’s purchasing power.
But the fact that Newcastle have got here by only lightly loosening the purse strings should be concerning for every team in world football. Much like Manchester City, this is a team that is not only inordinately wealthy, but also knows how to use it efficiently to create a winning machine.
Bruno Guimaraes, Kieran Trippier and co will win trophies in the next few years. Good results against Arsenal and Leicester in the next week could define whether that success, like the rest of their extraordinary rise, will arrive much quicker than anyone could have anticipated.
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