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This time 12 months ago, Liverpool had lost only two league games, were about to chalk up a 10-game winning run in the Premier League and had become only the eighth club to win all six of their Champions League group games. Nobody was talking about physical and mental fatigue.

One of the innate characteristics of a Jurgen Klopp side is that when one element of the team dynamic breaks, be it through individual poor form or a lack of belief, everything can quickly fall apart.

We diagnose four of the biggest issues causing Liverpool’s unexpected fallow year…

Lack of legs in midfield

“Liverpool have bought one midfield player in four and a half years and it’s coming back to haunt them now,” was Jamie Carragher’s assessment in January, and you would struggle to find a Liverpool supporter who disagrees with that.

It isn’t that Liverpool haven’t invested, more that they focused their recruitment on defensive back-up (Kostas Tsimikas, Calvin Ramsay, Ibrahima Konate) and high-level forwards (Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez, Cody Gakpo). In midfield, they signed Thiago Alcantara and then took Arthur Melo on loan.

Three of Liverpool’s four most-used midfielders this season are Thiago, Jordan Henderson and Fabinho – 31, 32 and 29. Liverpool played 63 matches last season and there was a World Cup in the middle of this campaign. Their midfield has less energy this term than it did last. These three things are related.

At their best, Liverpool were brilliant in transition – both ways. They transformed from defence to attack quickly, but also used their midfield energy to close teams down and snuff out counter-attacks.

Liverpool began this season by attacking with the same gusto, but the midfield has not been able to stop counters and so Liverpool have given away big chances.

In search of a solution, Klopp pushed his defensive line up the pitch to reduce the amount of space his midfielders needed to cover. That, in turn, only made Liverpool more vulnerable to a ball over the top for an onrushing forward.

Salah’s changing role

Mohamed Salah has not had a poor season; it is nonsense to suggest as much. He has 18 goals and assists in the Premier League and 13 in cup competitions. The numbers have slightly dropped off, but that’s not really on him.

Instead, Salah is being asked to play a different part following the signing of Nunez. Last year, Salah had the most shots of any Premier League player, with 4.33 per 90 minutes played. This season, he is taking his shots from roughly the same distance from goal and taking roughly the same amount of chances as before. But now the top shot-taker in the Premier League per 90 minutes, with more than 1.1 more per game than any other forward in the division, is Nunez.

Salah is taking 25 per cent fewer shots and creating fewer chances too (it isn’t that Salah is creating chances rather than shooting). With Liverpool’s extra forwards, the onus has been reduced on Salah. Given his age (30) and the workload of last season, maybe that’s no bad thing. But it does take some getting used to for him and his teammates.

All of this is best demonstrated in Salah’s comparative lack of touches this season. In 2021-22, he touched the ball more often than in any season of his career – 50.6 per 90 minutes in the league. This season, that has fallen to the lowest touches per 90 of his time at Liverpool – 39.8.

The loss of belief

“I cannot say I was 100 per cent convinced we would not concede a goal when we were 3-2 up,” said Klopp after Liverpool did indeed concede an equaliser to Brighton at Anfield in October. That admission spoke of Klopp’s concern that the mentality of his squad had shifted over the summer as mental fatigue and the disappointment of a second Champions League final defeat to Real Madrid set in.

In fact, Klopp’s worry about ceding leads has proved unfounded. Liverpool are the only team in the country not to drop any points after scoring the first goal of the game – 10 wins from 10. But he was right about the general erosion in belief. The biggest macro change in Liverpool is in their lack of response to adversity.

Last season in the league, Liverpool conceded the first goal of the game 12 times in the Premier League (more times than Arsenal, who finished fifth). But of those 12 matches, Liverpool only lost twice. Their record of 1.67 points per game when conceding first was more than half a point better than any other team in the division (Arsenal, for what it’s worth, took 0.27 points per game).

This season, a sea change. Liverpool have certainly conceded the first goal more often (13 times is already more than the whole of 2021-22). But their response to conceding has been poor: only 0.69 points per match. Crystal Palace, who have gone months without a win and sacked Patrick Vieira, have won double Liverpool’s number of matches when conceding first. Now it is Arsenal, leading the league, who have taken on that mantle: from 0.27 points per game to 1.88. Everyone faces adversity; it’s how you react to it that defines you.

Injury issues

Liverpool have not suffered a repeat of 2020-21, when their attempts to defend their league title were decimated by serious injuries to key players. Then, Virgil van Dijk only played five matches and Joel Matip just 10, while Henderson, Thiago and Fabinho had time out.

But Liverpool’s rhythm has been constantly disrupted by absentees. Only three times since the opening day has the defensive axis of Van Dijk, Matip and Fabinho started together (wins against Aston Villa and Ajax, draw vs Brighton). The league season started with three different central defensive combinations in three matches and three different midfield combinations for good measure.

And then, frequent minor knocks to kill any buzz. For the 3-2 defeat at Arsenal, Fabinho didn’t start. After winning two league games in a row vs Manchester City and West Ham, Liverpool lost to Nottingham Forest with a four-man midfield that contained Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott and Fabio Carvalho.

When a winning run ended in a shambolic defeat at Brentford, Matip and Andy Robertson were missing. Only three outfield players have started 80 per cent of their league games or more. Two of those (Van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold) have been out of form.

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The Premier League is set to return after the international break with the two-horse title race between Manchester City and Arsenal resuming on Saturday.

Arsenal have replaced Liverpool as City’s main challengers this season and Pep Guardiola’s team welcome Jurgen Klopp’s side to the Etihad in the early kick-off.

The build-up to the game has revolved around Erling Haaland’s fitness after he withdrew from Norway’s squad for their opening Euro 2024 qualifiers.

The Gunners meanwhile host Leeds at the Emirates and Mikel Arteta has a couple of injury concerns to contend with as he looks to keep City at arm’s length.

The relegation battle is just as interesting with multiple teams from 12^th to 20^th aiming to avoid playing Championship football next season.

Here is the key team news ahead of this weekend’s matches, which will be useful for Fantasy Premier League managers in particular.

Arsenal

William Saliba picked up a back injury against Sporting Lisbon and later pulled out of the French squad.

Mikel Arteta remains hopeful that the centre-back will return before the end of the season as “he is progressing” but “he still has some discomfort” and “is not going to be fit for this game”.

Takehiro Tomiyasu will miss the remainder of the campaign with a knee injury.

Manchester City

Erling Haaland, who is on track to beat the record for most goals scored in a Premier League season, suffered a groin injury that ruled him out of international duty with Norway.

Pep Guardiola was typically guarded about the striker’s availability, saying: “Haaland is in recovery and we’ll see how he feels in the last training session.”

City’s manager also confirmed that Phil Foden will be out for two or three weeks after surgery to remove his appendix.

Manchester United

On Marcus Rashford, Erik ten Hag said he has “good hope he will be available” for their trip to Newcastle after a knock ruled him out of England’s squad for the wins against Italy and Ukraine.

Anthony Martial may also return after training for two weeks following his long layoff due to a reported groin or hip complication. His last game was against Manchester City in January.

Tottenham

Hugo Lloris has begun training but no other players are set to return imminently despite Ben Davies and Ryan Sessegnon pushing to recover, according to interim boss Cristian Stellini.

Ivan Perisic is available to feature after suffering a knock to his calf during Croatia’s victory against Turkey on Tuesday, but Richarlison is out after limping off against Southampton.

Newcastle

Nick Pope had to withdraw from the England squad after sustaining a thigh injury, but Eddie Howe said “the signs are good” that he will be able to face Man United.

Sven Botman returned early from international duty with the Netherlands due to food poisoning but he has since returned to training and should be “fine” for this weekend’s game.

Anthony Gordon may also be in contention after an ankle injury, however Miguel Almiron remains out with a thigh complaint.

Chelsea

Graham Potter confirmed that Kai Havertz has recovered from a fever and revealed that Reece James had trained for the last two days after withdrawing from England duty. Mason Mount is also back after a spell on the sidelines.

Raheem Sterling will miss out but will have “more chance for Tuesday” when the Blues face Liverpool, but Thiago Silva, Cesar Azpilicueta and Wesley Fofana are all unavailable. Like Sterling, Fofana could return in midweek.

Liverpool

Luis Diaz has returned to training, but Saturday’s game at the Etihad will come too soon for the Colombian.

Darwin Nunez is “definitely in contention,” though after returning to training on Thursday once a cut on his foot had healed.

Naby Keita’s injury prone stint at Merseyside continues as he sustained a muscle injury on international duty.

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Manchester United fans have formed a new campaign group to protest against the Qatari takeover of the club.

Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani, chairman of one of Qatar’s biggest banks, lodged a second bid to buy United from the Glazer family last Friday and is hoping to succeed against rivals who include Ineos owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe.

But there are growing concerns within the fanbase that the club will effectively come under ownership of the Qatari state and be used to launder the country’s human rights abuses if Al Thani takes over.

The newly-formed group, United Against Sportswashing, has collaborated with NUFC Fans Against Sportswashing, a campaign group which has been protesting against the owners of Newcastle United since it was bought by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.

i revealed in February that members of NUFC Fans Against Sportswashing were hand-delivering a letter to Eddie Howe from the brother of a man who faces torture and the threat of execution in Saudi Arabia at St James’ Park before they played Liverpool.

A joint statement from the two protest groups said: “While NUFC play MUFC on Sunday, groups of fans from both clubs will be united in a common cause, regardless of the result on the pitch.

“We are Newcastle United and Manchester United fans standing together to call for an end to the sale of our historic clubs to states which use them to sportswash their human rights abuses.”

The Premier League has always maintained it received “legally binding assurances” that the Saudi state would not control Newcastle United, despite the country’s actual Public Investment Fund purchasing the club.

At the start of March, the situation was further mired in controversy when PIF lawyers argued in a US Court, in a case involving Saudi-owned LIV Golf, that the fund should be considered a “foreign state” and that Yasir Al-Rumayyan, chairman of Newcastle, is “a sitting minister of the government”.

Premier League chairman Richard Masters refused to say whether this had prompted further investigation when he was grilled in a parliamentary hearing this week.

“As football fans, we demand full transparency on this issue,” the joint statement continued. “There should be no ‘secret deals’ with repressive regimes, no matter how much money they have promised to invest in the Premier League. It’s time for Richard Masters to come clean and publish what the ‘legal and binding assurances’ given to the Premier League were.”

United Against Sportswashing and NUFC Fans Against Sportswashing also cite the 2008 takeover of Manchester City by Sheikh Mansour. “We now know that the UAE is one of the most oppressive regimes in the world,” they said, adding: “Now we have the threat of a third club, Manchester United, being taken over by Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani, close family to the president and chairman of the Qatari Islamic Bank. This follows the exposure of Qatari human rights abuses during the World Cup. We know that Qatar has a law No (25) of 2002 which makes any significant investment subject to direct supervision of the state.”

On Thursday, the Premier League announced that it was toughening its ownership regulations, including “a new Disqualifying Event for human rights abuses, based on Global Human Rights Sanctions Regulations 2020”.

However, former sports minister Tracey Crouch, a key figure in the formation of the independent football regulator, described it as “smoke and mirrors”.

The Manchester United and Newcastle anti-sportswashing groups said: “We remain concerned that an individual from a repressive regime can still become an owner if it is not made clear that the approval of a significant investment is dictated by the ruling family in these Gulf states.

“It is impossible to separate Sheikh Mansour from the UAE authorities and the same is true of Skeikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani and the Qatari authorities.

“As football fans, regardless of our club colours we believe dictatorships such as Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Qatar should be disqualified from owning clubs because of their appalling human rights records.

“Further, pumping money disproportionately into a small number of clubs distorts the fairness of the game. We are sure the fans of the other 17 other clubs in the Premier League will agree with us.

“We invite all football fans to join us in opposing sportswashing and state ownership of our football clubs and to support human rights. Football fans united can force the government and Premier League to act.”

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To a large chunk of their fiercest supporters and most die-hard detractors, there’s an inevitability about Newcastle United‘s rise.

Deep pockets and driven ownership tend to trump all, so the theory goes. And to be fair the club’s hierarchy have done little to dampen those great expectations in the months that have passed since a Saudi-funded takeover that shook football.

Take the loquacious Amanda Staveley’s radio interview in the hours that followed the club’s deflating Carabao Cup final loss to Sunday’s opponents Manchester United. “We will win the Carabao Cup,” she said matter-of-factly before adding assurances that the FA Cup, Champions League and Premier League would follow.

But the reality is that even with a super-sized budget and an executive team made up of some of the nimblest operators in the game, Newcastle have their work cut out to muscle into English football’s elite.

They are starting from a long way back, for a start. The ownership has had to build from scratch a football operation that had been hollowed out by Mike Ashley’s short-sighted cost-cutting. One recent appointee reckoned some League One teams had a better backroom operation than the one Newcastle’s new ownership inherited.

Then there’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) which makes it markedly tougher for pretenders to land a glove on Europe’s heavyweights. Intentional or not, it preserves the advantage of clubs with recent Champions League pedigree and has forced Newcastle to rein in their spending in the last couple of transfer windows.

None of this has stopped Newcastle from making great strides this season and for that Eddie Howe has to be a serious contender for manager of the year. But that Carabao Cup defeat was a jarring reminder that even a Manchester United side supposedly in transition was staffed by world class talent. In the bitter aftermath, club insiders acknowledged that Howe’s squad needs upgrading across the board to go toe-to-toe for the biggest prizes.

To bridge the gap they need a big bang moment and unexpectedly, it might come in as little as eight weeks. Champions League qualification, which would be properly transformative for the Newcastle project, is a realistic target and it is a chance that they can ill afford to go begging.

Opportunity might not knock like this again soon for Newcastle. Don’t get it twisted, they’ve done their bit by making smart signings, benefiting from superb coaching and impressive alignment off-the-field. But even the staunchest Magpie wouldn’t have anticipated so many established rivals would collapse simultaneously so soon.

Liverpool’s nosedive was a possibility given the sheer amount of effort expended chasing the quadruple last season. Chelsea’s new ownership was always an unknown and you can never discount the possibility of Antonio Conte prodding self destruct button at the first sign of turbulence. But all Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham hitting the buffers together? It offers Newcastle a path to the top four that they wouldn’t have dreamed of in the close season.

The hard work starts on Sunday. Having emerged from a barren spell that club insiders are putting down to the distraction of the Carabao Cup run, they look refreshed and reinvigorated after back-to-back wins against Wolves and Nottingham Forest. Manchester United represent a litmus test of their renewed form but with Alexander Isak irresisitible and others emerging around him, there is plenty of reason to believe.

It kicks off a run of games on Tyneside that will do much to decide their fate. With games in hand they control their own destiny and Tottenham, Arsenal and Brighton are all to come at St James’ Park. It will be the place to be during the run-in.

At the moment the club’s recruitment team are working on three summer transfer lists: one in the scenario they miss out on Europe altogether, another for Europa or Conference League football and a final one for the Champions League. It will open doors, both financially and to some of the players they thought they were three, four or even five years away from getting.

“Once we get there, we won’t go back,” a senior source told i earlier this year about Newcastle’s Champions League dream.

Among the dizzying talk the possibility of a Premier League investigtion into their majority owners was mentioned in Whitehall this week. Richard Masters chose his words carefully when asked if the league had noted a Public Investment Fund submission in the States which might be perceived as contradicting assurances given that there would be no Saudi state involvement in the running of the club.

The owners, it should be reported, do not seem unduly concerned or ruffled. A source told i that they believed “nothing had changed”. What’s more, they added, the club’s new custodians had been model owners since taking over, complying with FFP rules while bringing new jobs and new hope to a city firmly behind them.

Whether you bristle at that or not, this is a club determined not to take a backward step.

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A culture of fear and violence has engulfed grass-roots football with referees concerned somebody will be killed on the pitch, an i investigation has found.

With refereeing and the behaviour of players and coaches at the top the game under an intense spotlight, i interviewed people from across the country at the pyramid’s bottom to find out if the actions of Premier League stars influence player behaviour and is making life harder for referees.

This season alone, Jürgen Klopp was handed only a one-game ban for screaming in the face of assistant referee Gary Beswick, Bruno Fernandes pushing a linesman went unpunished while the Football Association is pushing for an extended ban for Aleksandar Mitrovic after he shoved referee Chris Kavanagh.

An i investigation found that:

• A brutal assault that left a player with a broken nose and his teeth knocked out went unpunished
• A referee fled a match leaving his assistant’s flags behind, afraid he would be beaten up by players
• A female referee was assaulted by a 15-year-old boy
• An amateur league chairman has revealed they cannot get official referees for 65 per cent of matches
• Assaults, threatening behaviour, intimidation and racism are occurring in grass-roots football “every weekend”
• Players, coaches and referees are afraid to speak publicly in case they face revenge attacks on the pitch, while league organisers are concerned county FAs will take action against them if they speak out
• The FA has told i it is doing “everything we can to stamp out this behaviour from our game”

One grass-roots league chairman, who asked not to be named, claims that while the FA has overall authority over the game in England grass-roots football is virtually forgotten about.

The FA delegates responsibility for overseeing the thousands of grass-roots leagues across the country to the 51 county associations, but those involved say their ability to deal with disciplinary cases is abysmal and the system is dysfunctional.

Grass-roots football is propped up by mainly unpaid volunteers who paint a picture of a sport, the most popular in the country, that is out of control and forcing teenagers and referees away from the game.

“The drop-off rate of kids going into adult football is massive,” says Lee Warren, who has been involved in amateur football for decades as a player, coach, referee, and for five years club secretary of Brentwood Youth. “It starts at 14 and 15 then it’s almost like a vertical drop.”

The FA maintains that the number of players has grown at that age over the last five years but those on the ground see things differently, and it took a recruitment drive two years ago to halt the dwindling number of referees.

The FA insists that referee numbers are increasing but Andy Ambler, the FA’s director of professional game relations, admitted there are “challenges around general retention of referees”.

Steve Earl, an official of nearly 30 years, fears young refereeing hopefuls are being driven away from the game. “They’re so short of referees wherever you go they just don’t last,” he says. “You see the way they get treated, you understand. The sad thing is the young ones who come in, none of the young ones I’ve trained or met or spoken to or mentored, none of them stay.”

Is it any wonder when weekend league pitches have become a place where people can commit serious violent crime without punishment? With football pitches existing in this strange no-man’s land, where people expect football authorities to deal with matters while county FAs often expect them to be reported to the police.

In one serious case, a player was head-butted and had his nose broken and teeth knocked out, but the referee did not take action after failing to see it. When two independent witnesses reported the assault to the county FA, the organisation said it first had to get a response from the attacker’s club then later said it was unable to take action as too much time had elapsed.

“It’s out of control and we can’t get it back. People think they can do exactly what they want”

The alleged aggressor was able to continue playing while the man who was assaulted has given up, i was told.
One person who deals with disciplinary matters for a league shared with i a report they collate monthly, which included six serious incidents. They said it was indicative of what they deal with every month.

When a referee gave a foul against a player the player shouted, “F**k off you c**t, I’ll break your legs,” and the abusive behaviour was so awful the official considered abandoning the game, the report states. The official was so afraid for his safety that after the game he left his assistant’s flags behind.

Another referee had a yellow card slapped out of their hand by a player who warned, “I’ll find where you live.” In another game, a referee was told a player would have “done something about that” if they were not on the football pitch.

One player reports being called a “dirty foreigner” and that an opposition player said, “F**k off back home to where you came from.” Players are reported to frequently yell “c**t” at each other and match officials, while i was told of another case where a 15-year-old player shouted at an opposition coach of Asian descent, “Shut up Rishi Sunak.”

The FA insists that only 0.01 per cent of the 850,000 grass-roots matches every year include a reported incident of assault. But many on the ground say it is going unreported and that statistic certainly does not stack up with the 33 per cent of grass-roots referees who told a BBC survey they had been physically abused.

“Since Covid it’s been really bad,” Warren, whose club has more than 400 players aged four to 18, says. “The local league we play in is an affluent area, Brentwood is lovely, nice, middle class. I’ve seen two emails they’ve sent out about concerns about deterioration in behaviour – not just on the pitch but off the pitch as well. It’s widespread.

“It’s out of control and we can’t get it back under control. People think they can do exactly what they want. I never used to believe in the idea that they do what they see on the telly, but it’s so true.”

Dave Bradshaw was brutally assaulted after sending off a player last October. The attacker, Tyler Rasburn, broke four of Bradshaw’s ribs, his nose and collarbone and dislocated his shoulder. Rasburn has been suspended for 10 years.

“The attack’s left me feeling really paranoid,” Bradshaw told i. “I’ve got cameras outside my flat, watching the front door, the back door, everywhere. It’s not good for my mental health.

“Why not fix this problem now before something goes horribly wrong? Why not fix it now before it’s too late, before somebody dies?”

Bradshaw believes the issue mainly affects male football. “This doesn’t happen in rugby, it doesn’t happen in cricket. It doesn’t happen in the women’s game, either. When I ref women’s football, I might get the odd comment, but they apologise afterwards. It’s a male thing, and it’s really getting out of hand.”

“I was physically abused by an under-16. I’ve still got a bruise to show for it”

Lucy Clark, the world’s first transgender referee, told i that transphobic abuse in men’s football left her feeling suicidal and that she now only referees women. “The men’s game is miles behind the women’s game in terms of inclusivity,” she said.

Dele Sotimirin believes people “pay money to abuse you” in grass-roots. “I’m not saying it’s right. That’s what they do. You have to have the right mindset and skillset to overcome that,” he told In The Middle, an award-winning documentary following grass-roots referees. “I’ve been spat at, it’s disgusting. It’s one of the most degrading things a person can do. I’d rather a player punch me in the mouth than spit at me, it’s so degrading. I’ve had people try to attack me.”

Cassandra McKoy suffered physical abuse while officiating. “Thirteen years of refereeing I think my worst encounter was last summer, I was physically abused by a player and that player was a youth, an under-16 player and I found it quite daunting,” McKoy said. “That’s the worse I’ve ever encountered – I’ve still got a bruise to show for it.”

Elle Kaplitz was so badly abused for being a female official that she once left the pitch. “I did a men’s charity tournament once and they called me every name under the sun, and said I don’t belong here, I belong in the kitchen, all stuff like this,” she said. “I walked out of the tournament. It’s the only time I’ve ever walked out.

“Two or three years ago I was at a game, I was in the middle and the crowd started chanting ‘the referee’s a lesbian’ all of this, just because I didn’t give a foul. Then they started saying I was sleeping with the players.”

The FA insists it has toughened its rulebook, including longer suspensions for assaults on officials, and that its refereeing department now makes contact with assault victims when made aware and provides support.

Body camera trials have also started this year, although it has taken years of campaigning by organisations such as charity Ref Support UK and individuals including Warren, who is adamant that not enough has been done to stop bad behaviour to protect county FA revenues.

Extensive analysis of county FA accounts by i found they were collectively making more than £8m per year from fining amateur footballers for yellow and red cards.

“It’s all about revenue,” he said. “The money being raised from fines, the FA will do nothing to allow their grip to be loosened on it.”

Even when action is taken against players for serious assaults by county FAs, players will sign up with “fake names”, Warren says, to continue playing. In some cases, a league chairman says, entire teams have folded due to fines for awful behaviour but re-formed soon afterwards under a different name.

Warren insists adults are to blame for the abuse in children’s football. “Children are actually not that bothered what the result is,” he said. “There are exceptions to the rule, but on the whole they just want to play. And it’s the adults and the coaches that make this competitive side of it so front and centre. But the kids mimic everything they see.”

But can elite footballers and managers really carry the can for the behaviour of adults?

“I don’t personally think that’s the case, but we’re angrier, we’re more tired, I think cocaine use is causing issues.”

An FA spokesperson told i: “We have over 29,000 referees in England, and they are the lifeblood of our game. We understand the challenges that some of them face, and we have been very clear that all forms of abuse, whether on or off the pitch, are completely unacceptable.

“While it is only a small minority of people who behave badly to referees, this is still too many, and we will continue to do everything we can to stamp out this behaviour from our game.

“Through stronger sanctions, leading innovations and a new three-year refereeing strategy coming soon, we are determined to tackle this issue and build a safer and more inclusive environment for our match officials to have happy and fulfilling long term experiences as referees.”

Warren, however, is less optimistic. “Football’s in big trouble. I don’t see how it can recover from this.”

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Roy Hodgson thinks Sir Alex Ferguson would call him a “fool” for returning to Premier League management ahead of his Crystal Palace homecoming against Leicester on Saturday.

It will be Hodgson’s first game since leaving Watford at the end of the 2021-22 season 10 months ago and it was generally assumed then that it would be his final job.

However, Hodgson returned to Palace where he worked from 2017-21, earlier this month to replace Patrick Vieira with a remit of keeping the club in the top-flight.

“I would think if [Sir] Alex was to text me he’d be saying ‘what are you doing you fool?'” Hodgson quipped when asked whether other managers had reached out since he rejoined Palace.

“I’ve had lots of nice messages, I am fortunate as well I always get messages from abroad so yes that’s always a nice thing.

“But again this is that nice period, training has been very enjoyable, I’ve really enjoyed being out there with the players, it’s been a very pleasant time. It hasn’t been enormously stressful because we haven’t lost a game yet, but the stress I’m afraid starts on Saturday.”

Hodgson will break his own record as the Premier League’s oldest manager in history this weekend, becoming the first manager in their 75th year to take charge of a game.

When Hodgson did a lap of honour at Selhurst Park in one of his final games at Watford – a move that infuriated the Hornets’ faithful – it looked like a farewell.

But Hodgson insisted that he never officially retired and was open to coming back to the game if the right opportunity arose.

“I’d accepted that I’ve retired because that’s what everyone’s been saying,” he said.

“Whenever I walk down the street people say to me ‘are you enjoying your retirement?’ but at the same time I’ve never really felt old enough to retire if the truth’s known. I know that I am, my birth certificate tells me I am but the way I feel doesn’t really tell me that.”

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Ordinarily a team positioned 12th in the Premier League table with 10 games to go is more or less assured of retaining their place in the division the following year.

This is no ordinary season, though, as Crystal Palace, who are currently occupying 12th place, know all too well. The Eagles have been seemingly glued to that spot since Christmas, but are only four points better off than Southampton in 20th. As the returning Roy Hodgson alluded to in his first press conference back, they are in a “dogfight”.

Palace’s precarious points tally, if not position, is why Steve Parish decided to part ways with Patrick Vieira and rewind the clock to appoint the man who preceded him. On the face of it, Hodgson’s appointment looks like a backwards step.

Re-hiring a 75-year-old who was gently ushered out of the door 22 months ago doesn’t suggest Palace have anything resembling a long-term plan. Hodgson though is more than happy to focus on the short-term.

“I am purely focusing on now – there is no discussion about that [the future] at all,” he said while acknowledging that his wife “didn’t make too many complaints” about his unexpected Selhurst Park homecoming.

Parish could point to the club’s position of 20th in the Premier League’s form table in 2023 and a 12-game winless streak – seven losses, five draws – as sufficient evidence that a change was required.

As ever at this stage of a campaign, the hope will be that it can spark an uplift in mood and momentum; Hodgson spoke of lifting the “black dog” that can take over a squad when results are poor.

The obvious counter-argument is that Palace have had a horror run this year, facing each of the top 10 clubs with high-flying Aston Villa (in 11th) the only bottom-half side they have played. And even in defeat, Palace were competitive, with five of those seven defeats coming by a single goal.

Naturally, there is a major fixture swing for the final 10 games: Palace’s next six games are against clubs positioned between 13th and 20th in the table, while Spurs (4th) and Fulham (9th) are the only top half opponents they will face. Vieira may feel, with some justification, that he could have turned things around given that schedule.

Hodgson is regarded as being a safe pair of hands – although Watford fans probably disagree with that assessment given he won nine points in 18 games as they were relegated last season – as his strengths are making teams solid and harder to beat, rather than more expansive and free-flowing.

Keeping goals out hasn’t really been Palace’s problem this season; scoring them has. They are the joint-lowest scorers in the league with Everton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves, but have the 11th-best defensive record. Having top-scorer Wilfried Zaha available will certainly help; the Ivorian missed three consecutive draws in February and could have been the difference in turning one point into three, or even three points into nine.

Since Hodgson departed at the end of the 2020-21 campaign, Palace have begun a process of regeneration, refreshing an ageing squad with younger players.

“The team I left behind had nine players out of contract and goodness knows how many over 30 so we were an ageing team,” he said. “We brought in Eberechi Eze with a view to starting the process of getting more youth into the team as well as the technique and that’s continued. This team is capable of a much more energetic approach perhaps than we were able to provide especially in the last season.”

Ushering in a more dynamic style of play and fixing a faulty attack doesn’t look like the most obvious assignment for Hodgson. But if he succeeds in keeping Palace up, Parish will be satisfied that his big gamble has paid off.

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If you’re the manager of a struggling Premier League club, focusing on not conceding goals makes good sense. The last time the outright worst defence in the top flight survived relegation was Crystal Palace in 1989-90.

Conversely, the outright lowest scorers have stayed up on eight different occasions in the Premier League era, including the glorious 1996-97 campaign when Leeds United scored 28 goals in 38 league games and finished 11th.

Even so, this season things have got a little out of hand. To provide some context, only the bottom three scored goals at a rate of less than one per game in 2021-22.

This season, seven teams are doing so: Palace, Wolves, Everton, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Bournemouth, and Southampton. Last year, Leeds ranked 17th for goals scored, with 42. This year, 42 goals is on course to rank 12th.

The nine clubs currently separated by four points in this unprecedented Premier League relegation bunfight are not all the same; Leicester and Leeds are exceptions as clubs with decent attacking records and leaky defences.

Poor attacking returns are also not exclusively restricted to these strugglers: Chelsea have 29 in 27 league games and Liverpool have scored 13 in 13 away games. But in general, this is a relegation battle defined by an inability to score goals. Or, to put it another way: Wolves went over a year without a striker scoring a goal and they’re 13th.

Oddly, this chronic lack of goals has not led to a lack of points. It might feel like every club from Crystal Palace downwards could have no complaints if they went down, but West Ham are in the relegation zone having collected points at a rate of 1.08 per game. In 2017-18, as an example, 1.08 points per game was enough to finish 13th (West Ham know this, because it was them).

The explanation for the lack of goals but not lack of points is pretty evident: this has been the 1-0 season. In each of the last six seasons, 1-1 has been the most common scoreline. But this season so far, a 1-0 home win beats it. And you can see why: Southampton, Everton, Forest and Wolves have won 25 league games between them – 16 of those wins have been 1-0. That is particularly true for those intra-bottom-half matches.

The explanation for this chronic lack of goals is just as self-evident: a chronic lack of goalscorers. But it’s goalscorers of a particular type that have suddenly become an endangered species.

Over the last three full seasons, a list of centre forwards for teams that finished 12th or lower who scored 10 or more league goals in a season: Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins, Teemu Pukki (twice), Emmanuel Dennis, Danny Ings, Callum Wilson, Chris Wood (twice), Christian Benteke, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Troy Deeney, Neal Maupay. I haven’t included Richarlison or Wilfried Zaha in that list because they often played as a wide forward.

The list of centre forwards for clubs in 12th or lower currently on course to score 10 or more league goals this season: Rodrigo (and even then he hasn’t always played as a centre forward and he scored almost 40 per cent of his goals in August). The only other players in that cluster of clubs who are on course for double figures: Harvey Barnes and James Maddison (both attacking midfielders, nine apiece), Brennan Johnson (wide forward, seven goals), James Ward-Prowse (seven goals, three of which were free-kicks and one a penalty).

To find another centre forward after Rodrigo in the bottom nine clubs, you have to go down to Che Adams on five goals and then Taiwo Awoniyi on four. Adams has scored three times since August and Awoniyi has started nine league matches. By any measure, this is extraordinary.

If goals are down, you immediately look to shot numbers for evidence. And we find some: last season, Watford ranked 19th in the Premier League (and finished 19th) with 10.45 shots per match. So far this season, five clubs average fewer than Watford did last season.

Some of this is clearly tactical. At Nottingham Forest, Steve Cooper plays with split forwards, looks to use the counter attack to create chances and aims to keep clean sheets at home. Since January, Bournemouth have done the same with their new wingers. Clean sheet numbers of the clubs at the bottom are up on last season, suggesting that having a large clump of relegation candidates incentivises managers to try and win tight, low-scoring matches where each goal is highly valuable.

Elsewhere, blame bad luck: Calvert-Lewin has been injured for most of the season at Everton, Patrick Bamford has struggled for match fitness at Leeds, Sasa Kalajdzic got badly injured in August at Wolves and Raul Jimenez isn’t the same player after his serious head injury.

But there is also no escaping that the strikers of those clubs have almost all suffered desperate seasons according to our preseason expectations. Gianluca Scamacca has struggled badly at West Ham (and Michail Antonio declined). Age has caught up with Jamie Vardy, but neither Patson Daka nor Kelechi Iheanacho have produced consistently. Neal Maupay hasn’t worked out at Everton; the same is true of Emmanuel Dennis at Forest, Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha at Wolves and just about every striker Crystal Palace have signed over the last half decade.

And that’s also apparent in the numbers. In 2021-22, four clubs in the Premier League underperformed their expected goals (the number of goals we would expect from the chances created/shots taken) by an average of more than 0.1 per match across the season: Brighton, Watford, Burnley and Norwich.

This season so far, nine Premier League clubs are underperforming their expected goals by an average of more than 0.1 per match. That list includes Newcastle, Liverpool and Chelsea and then six of the strugglers.

Their finishing is costing them and, if their finishing continues to let them down, they will pay a heavy price. As we enter the longest home straight in Premier League history and its tightest-ever relegation battle, the ability to find a goalscorer may be the difference. That might take tactical courage, a dose of good fortune with injuries or just better execution of technique by individuals. Either way, something is going to have to give.

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Something twigged at Villa Park in the final moments of Aston Villa’s win over Bournemouth.

“Maybe the last 10 minutes is where we connected with our supporters the most,” said Unai Emery. “It felt really good on the pitch, the moment we have enjoyed the most with our supporters.”

And the fans? Well, they agree too. “It felt like everything came together on and off the pitch, the philosophy and the crowd connected,” season-ticket holder Ryan Mckeown, from the UTV Podcast, tells i.

“Emery has spoken since day one about giving us a performance and connecting, and this is the game where it happened. My favourite result of the season.”

Fellow Holte Ender and Villa Park regular for more than 30 years, Guy Dunstan, concurs. “It was heartening to convert an impressive performance into a convincing win, with two late goals generating a very positive atmosphere.”

From a 1-0 lead heading into the 80^th minute, further goals from Jacob Ramsey and Emi Buendia rounded off Villa’s third win in four, and has them looking up when the Premier League returns this weekend.

Indeed, the table may traditionally be shown in two halves but that hardly does Villa justice. They sit 11^th, level on 38 points with Chelsea in 10^th, and only four points behind Liverpool in 6th.

They are also 11 points ahead of the club directly below them, Crystal Palace, who opted to rope in Roy Hodgson and sack Patrick Vieira in their bid to avoid relegation, a battle that has evolved into a fascinating nine-way scramble with just four points separating 20^th from 12^th.

If you’d have said back in October that nine teams were in the frame for relegation, you would almost certainly have included Villa in that list. On 20 October, Villa lost 3-0 at Fulham, and sacked Steven Gerrard some 90 minutes later with the club only out of the drop-zone on goals scored.

Aaron Danks stepped up, winning then losing 4-0, before Villa’s ambition – one that reportedly had them chasing Mauricio Pochettino and Thomas Tuchel – landed them a Europa League winner.

Viva la revolución. Under Unai Emery, Villa look a team transformed, and currently sit sixth in the Premier League form table for the past 10 league games, picking up as many wins as Brentford, Brighton, Manchester United and Tottenham in that time.

Their recent efforts have also seen Emery nominated for Premier League’s manager of the month for March, joining esteemed company in title-chasers Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola.

So how did they get here? On the cusp of a European push when relegation was the fear just five months ago?

First, the fall, and back to Emiliano Martinez’s telling, albeit fairly innocuous at the time, comments from last March.

“It’s the first time in a 14-15 year career that the assistant coach does all the talking,” Martinez told Ben Foster for Prime Video Sport, referring to Gerrard’s No 2 Michael Beale.

“He knows so much about football it’s just incredible. He does all the training sessions, he takes the important meetings – obviously Stevie G talks – when you are in every club the manager does the talking and the assistant coach helps. Actually with Michael we felt him and Stevie G both were managers.”

Beale would go on to leave Villa in the summer, joining QPR, while he has gone on to manage Rangers since. Viewed as the brains of the operation, Martinez’s views were echoed by Villa’s fans, and it was little surprise to see the season start with a run of two Premier League wins in 11 games under Gerrard.

It’s safe to say the atmosphere became toxic at Villa Park. Gerrard’s persistence with both formation and personnel, namely his tendency to stick with the misfiring Philippe Coutinho, was not having the desired effect, while stripping Tyrone Mings of the captaincy just before the season started was already an indication of a divided camp.

The sacking felt inevitable, and the Fulham defeat confirmed it. Here was a Villa side unable to cope with a newly-promoted team, albeit one that have gone on to push for Europe themselves.

Villa since Premier League return 

2019-20: W9 D8 L21 – F41 A67 35pts – 17th 

2020:21: W16 D7 L15 – F55 A46 55pts – 11th 

2021-22: W13 D6 L19 – F52 A54 45pts – 14th 

2022-23 so far: W11 D5 L11 – F35 A39 38pts – 11th

In came Emery with a two-fold mission upon his appointment in early November. “My dream is to win a trophy with Aston Villa. It’s my personal challenge at the beginning. My second objective could be to play with Aston Villa in Europe.”

A 3-1 win over Manchester United, their first win at home over this bogey club for 27 years, was quite the start, and what has unfolded is what Villa fans would tell you is a by-product of having a coach who knows what he’s doing.

“Going from what can only be described as pure misery during Steven Gerrard’s reign as Aston Villa boss to a breath of fresh air in Unai Emery, it’s clear to see that the Spaniard’s experience and coaching style has reinvigorated this squad,” Cole Pettem, from the 7500 to Holte podcast, tells i.

“The belief in the head coach’s approach has really made all the difference and the ability to buy into that sort of mentality can make any team a dangerous one for opponents to battle against.

“The only way Aston Villa were ever going to succeed under Emery was if the squad embraced his style of play and mindset as a collective. It’s fair to say those aspects have been consumed by the players and are now reflecting out on the football pitch.

“Playing out from the back was certainly a cause for concern in the early days of Emery’s time as Villa, but the work put in on the training pitch and patience in trusting the process has been key. It’s amazing what can happen when everyone buys into a mindset or ethos.”

Some of the changes from Gerrard to Emery include formation. A 4-3-3 under Gerrard left John McGinn neither here nor there in midfield, and arguably a whole team uncertain on their roles, while under Emery it has predominantly been 4-2-3-1 with a sprinkle of 4-4-2.

Gerrard vs Emery

Most likely XI under Gerrard – based on starts until the Fulham game:

• 4-3-3: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Kamara, McGinn, Ramsey; Bailey, Watkins, Coutinho  

Most likely XI under Emery* – based on starts since the Man Utd game:

• 4-2-3-1: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; Kamara, Luiz; Buendia, Ramsey, Bailey; Watkins

*An injury to McGinn sees him just miss out

And not only are Villa sharper with the ball – five of the six occasions they have averaged above 83 per cent pass completion in the league this season has been under Emery, which includes their past three games – their passes are shorter and more precise, too.

Attempted long balls under Gerrard totalled 70 or more in eight of their 11 league games this season. Since Emery took over, they’ve recorded more than 70 just three times in 14 games.

“We have amazing owners,” says another season-ticket holder, Jack Ryan. “They got it spot on and hired one of the best managers around, and he is clearly getting the best out of near enough every player.”

And when it comes to individual performances, Ollie Watkins is the headline-maker with six goals in his last eight games, but McGinn is back to form in midfield, and the centre-back partnership of Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa is producing clean sheets and laying down a marker for the returning Diego Carlos – the defender bought from Sevilla in the summer who suffered an Achilles injury in August and is now close to a return.

The key, though, would appear to be a midfield pairing of Douglas Luiz and Boubacar Kamara that has Villa fans waxing lyrical….

View from the Holte End – Aston Villa fan forum

Three season-ticket holders pick out their standout players under Emery…

Jack Ryan: “Mings has overcome the fall out with Gerrard and looks a colossus again. Konsa has been consistent, and reliable although he goes under the radar a bit. Alex Moreno has hit the ground running. Douglas Luiz has shown why Arsenal wanted him so badly after their £30m bids and he’s massively improved since January. Buendia is back in the Argentina squad. McGinn looks back to his old self thriving in the advanced roll. Kamara would have a strong shout too if it wasn’t for the injury. And Watkins is scoring for fun.

“For me, Watkins is the standout though. I believe only Marcus Rashford, Erling Haaland and Harry Kane have scored more than him since the World Cup. Not bad considering we’ve faced Man City, Liverpool, Spurs and Arsenal during that time.”

Guy Dunstan: “A toss-up between Kamara and Luiz. The player who has improved the most is Douglas Luiz. He’s been able to play further up the pitch and be more influential on the ball. Kamara has been key to giving Luiz and McGinn more freedom, hence their improvement. He’s a Rolls Royce of a player. On the basis that Luiz has played more games, he gets my nod, just!”

Ryan Mckeown: “I think it’s more telling about the ones that haven’t. For me, the main starting XI have all improved. Every positional role is completely different from what these players have ever played before.

“One full-back is more attacking; the other sits in and creates a three; the centre-halves are ball carriers; the wingers are box midfielders pushing into the eight and 10 positions; one of the forwards drops back into the winger position on the opposite flanks to the advanced full-back—there is a lot going on!

“My personal favourite standout is Douglas Luiz; we are finally seeing a manager tap into his talent for the benefit of Aston Villa.”

Here it is worth noting that it has not been perfect. Villa had twice led Arsenal before losing 4-2. You can copy, paste, and make a slight amendment to that, for Villa twice led Leicester before losing 4-2 as well. Oh, and to Manchester United too, with the exact same scenario playing out in their Carabao Cup encounter.

They also led West Ham then drew earlier this year, and also led Stevenage going into the 89^th minute before suffering a shock FA Cup exit at the hands of the League Two club.

Those slip-ups made the Bournemouth victory all the sweeter, and left the feel-good factor reverberating around Villa Park during the international break.

And so, with a style that is taking shape and players finding form across the pitch, a late dash for Europe is the dream. And if not this season, the next, for though Villa fans are eager to return to the heady days, they know they are not quite there yet.

“Even the thought of sneaking into the Europa Conference League spot would make most Villa fans uncontrollably giddy, but in reality, that’s likely a step too far this season,” Pettem adds.

“The progress under Emery has been remarkable, so seeing Villa finish strongly would maintain the momentum heading into next season. Ideally, being able to be competitive and walk away with some points from the likes of Manchester United, Newcastle United, and Chelsea would also show the sort of progress made under this regime.

“Heading into next season, we’re going to see some key signings strengthen this squad and I’m uncomfortably confident in the fact that Villa will finish in the top 10 and compete for a domestic trophy – fingers crossed.”

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They don’t seem like the ­actions of the next owner of Manchester United Football Club. A WhatsApp sent to an international number that’s not exactly difficult to find, a reply within four minutes and a long, friendly chat over the web the next morning.

Finnish businesman Thomas Zilliacus is mighty relaxed for a man plotting to overturn the odds and launch a football ownership revolution. His bid for United was launched just seven days ago, the financing pulled together in a few hours from “a global network of contacts” and the unique bid structure dreamt up in a morning.

So how seriously should we take Zilliacus? Proving his credibility remains a battle and the nature of the takeover world is that it attracts people who know that being linked to the biggest club in the world is PR money can’t buy. Rival bidders Sir Jim Ratcliffe and the Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani, it has to be said, don’t appear unduly concerned.

Put that to Zilliacus, 69, and he insists he is deadly serious about an offer that the Raine Group, the merchant bankers handling the process on behalf of the Glazer family, at least appears prepared to listen to.

So here’s Zilliacus’s pitch: his investment group will buy the club and then issue shares that supporters can snap up, potentially for as little as $1 (81p) if the billion worldwide fans claimed by United all chip in.

That would give them a vote on substantial football matters such as whether to put funds up for stadium development or improving the squad but not, he stresses, team selection.

It is certainly a different approach, as is the charm offensive he has been on since launching the bid. As you would expect from a man who was the CEO of Nokia in Asia, talking comes easily to Zilliacus and he is slightly puzzled when I suggest that many are writing him off partly because of how accessible he is.

“I come from a culture where we’re used to being open and discussing things to conclusion. I see no reason to hide. This is not about my ego,” he tells i.

Instead, the boyhood Manchester United fan says he believes bringing a Nordic model to the Premier League would ensure the “institution” is protected.

“It was there long before all these people who are bidding for it were born and it will be here long after all these people who are bidding for it have passed away,” he says.

“The backbone of that institution is the fans and in that respect it’s hugely important the fans are at the centre of the decisions.”

Zilliacus is certainly engaging. He had four years as chairman of HJK Helsinki and has been looking to invest in a football club for months. But going for the biggest one in the world?

“I actually saw that the deadline was last Wednesday, literally on Wednesday morning and then I had to act very, very fast,” he tells i of the whirlwind last week. “I called the bank [Raine], told them we would like to participate, Raine said it was kind of late and they weren’t sure it made much sense.

“They discussed it internally and got back to us and said ‘OK, here’s an NDA [non-disclosure agreement], sign it then we’ll discuss the next steps after that’.

“We signed the NDA, put in a bid in general terms on Wednesday but then the deadline was extended to Friday, which gave us two more days to put in a revised bid, which had an actual number of what we were bidding, and that’s how it’s played out.”

It all sounds fairly matter of fact for a transaction that might end up being north of £5bn. With apologies Thomas, can you lay your hands on that kind of cash?

“I have been doing business all my life, I have started companies, bought companies, sold companies so I have a global network and I have done this on a global scale – first with the largest phone company in the world, Nokia, then with my own group.

“I have a network that spans the globe of people who want to participate in interesting ventures, and this certainly is one. To put together financing for something like this – and it is a big sum – is something I’m used to.

“When I had left Nokia, I wanted to make a bid for that company 10 years ago and it was a bigger sum than what we’re talking about now. I put the financing together for that, so this is not rocket science to me – the world is full of money that is looking for interesting opportunities.”

He is now waiting to hear back from Raine. “I don’t know if that reflects the fact that all of the bids are below what the Glazers wanted to see and therefore they are now discussing how to proceed,” he says.

He has heard the Glazers are split on whether to sell and one of his proposals is for Ratcliffe, Al Thani and himself to “join forces”.

Whatever the scepticism, he’s happy to put his head above the parapet. “All options are on the table,” he says emphatically. “This could end in any way.”

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