After a night of confusion around the Manchester United takeover, a clearer picture of where things stand has emerged.
But we are maybe no closer to knowing where the deal is heading.
Here are the key questions around the sale process answered.
What happened on unofficial second bid deadline day?
In common with a lot of what has happened since that day in November when the Glazer family announced their “review of strategic alternatives”, a lot of heat without much light.
Shortly after the 9pm deadline informed sources let it be known that Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al-Thani’s second offer – understood to be north of his initial, indicative £4.5bn bid – had been tabled with Raine.
Similar noises were made about the second offer made by Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos group which was no surprise given both parties had been signposting their intentions since the meetings held with club staff last week.
But after pushback from Manchester United and Raine, clarification arrived after 10pm: the deadline had been extended and neither bid had actually been tabled.
Further detail emerged shortly afterwards. The Qatari bid was “ready to go” but at the point they contacted Raine to submit it they were informed an extension had been granted.
Deciding that it was in their strategic interests to make use of this further time, Al Thani’s team indicated they would not formally table their offer until the revised deadline (which, as of Wednesday night, hadn’t actually been set).
The word from sources close to the process is that it is Raine’s call to extend the deadline, although others have suggested it was Ratcliffe and Al Thani’s teams who asked for the extra time. That has been flatly denied by US sources with knowledge of the Qatari intentions.
Other proposals – understood to be around financing and taking on minority stakes – were submitted on Wednesday. There’s widespread scepticism whether there are other bidders for overall control, which is the end game of both Sir Jim and Sheikh Jassim.
So in short: more delay and an added dollop of uncertainty to the whole process.
Are Al Thani and Ratcliffe still in the running?
The word from the Qatari end is emphatic: nothing has changed. They still intend to bid, they were in a position to bid on Wednesday and they are still fully committed to a full buy out and rolling out expansive plans for the training ground, stadium, first team, academy and surrounding area.
Ratcliffe’s team say the same thing. They haven’t come all this way to drop out now, especially after constructive talks last week.
This move comes after sources close to the process told i that they suspected a bidding war was being “whipped up” with the intention of driving interested parties to submit offers close to the Glazers’ asking price of closer to £6bn.
This move could have been Raine’s way of injecting further uncertainty into the process and encouraging larger bids – or even their attempts to encourage further parties to join the process, one of those sources suggested.
Clearly though, this has a lot of distance left to run.
What happens next?
Parties were due to learn on Thursday when the new deadline is, but it wasn’t anticipated to be a major delay. One source hoped that bids would be in by the end of the week and the next stage of the process could begin “as soon as possible”.
The best case scenario for the bidders is that one of the parties gets exclusivity in the process, allowing them to have a deep dive into the club’s books and then table a third offer based on that detailed due diligence.
If that bid is accepted it would take about a month for the Premier League’s owners and directors checks to be completed and the new era to begin.
But Wednesday was a reminder that this is very different from the Chelsea sale, which had a definite deadline that was imposed by the Government forcing Roman Abramovich to sell up. This time it is at the whim of owners who have no obligation to sell and simply want to get the best possible deal for themselves.
So it is safe to say that this process – which has been surrounded by plenty of background noise since the start – is going to continue to be a rollercoaster for supporters desperate to see the back of the Glazer family.
While the bidders have got on the front foot since the start, no one has heard definitively what the Glazer family are thinking and that has added a layer of mistrust and scepticism.
Wednesday’s delay – and the differing versions of what happened – are only going to add to speculation that the family are reticent to cash in and that the whole process has been one big fishing expedition.
Will the Glazers sell?
Even those at the heart of the process do not know the answer to this one. There is a theory that the family themselves are split on what to do next.
One thing is for certain: if they do not get an offer that is acceptable to them, they will walk away from the process or look to take out the financing or minority stake options on the table.
Sources close to the process say neither Ratcliffe nor Al Thani are prepared to “overpay wildly”. Bids of £5.5bn were speculated about on Wednesday and i was told the Qatari proposal represented a “fair and generous” offer based on the 10 hours of meetings last week.
If they do not sell, they will walk into a firestorm of criticism from fans and questions about how they will fund the major infrastructure works that are needed at the club. But as they have shown in nearly two decades of ownership, they are prepared to walk through the storm.
When will this be resolved?
Those early claims that the sale process could be complete by “the end of the first quarter” – or the end of March – were clearly unrealistic. A revised deadline of the end of April also looks seriously optimistic.
Sources say no-one knows but they hope there will be a resolution by the end of the season.
What about mystery bidders?
The two declared bidders are sceptical about claims that there are other rivals given the size of the financial commitment required to broker a full sale.
“If there was someone else involved, sources in banking or high finance would be talking about it. There just hasn’t been that buzz,” one source told i.
What is agreed on, however, is that there are parties ready to provide external finance or buy out a minority stake. Elliott Investment Management, the former owners of AC Milan, are one of those groups.
What about the supporters?
Such is the way of the Premier League football fan: the future of your club is at stake and you are, in effect, absolutely powerless to do anything about it.
With supporter ownership a pipe dream at the levels of finance discussed, it is down to the Manchester United Supporters Trust and other groups to try and influence potential bidders to make fan engagement a key strand of their strategy.
Ratcliffe’s group say it is, as do the Qatari group who have been accused of sportswashing on behalf of the Gulf state. But detailed plans haven’t been put forward by either yet.
Fans clearly want to see the back of the Glazers but the owners remain the kingmakers and seem less interested in the club than whether the deal makes sense for them.
As the 1958 group of Manchester United supporters campaigning against the Glazers put it on Wednesday night: “Our mantra has always been simple. To rid ourselves of the virus that has been killing our club and 18 years of decay. A FULL SALE ONLY is the acceptable outcome. Nothing less.”
from Football - inews.co.uk https://ift.tt/rO1z0mk
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