A summer of flux has created uncertainty at Newcastle United but make no mistake: they remain a formidable proposition, especially at St James’ Park.
Newcastle have lost only five times at home in two league seasons and look good value to open their campaign in flying fashion against Southampton. They have a generous run of early fixtures and will fancy their chances of building some momentum.
Missing out on Europe last season was a blow but insiders insist it can be a positive, giving Eddie Howe precious time on the training ground to prepare and improve his squad. The focus is solely domestic this time around.
So what should we expect? Here’s i‘s rundown.
What does success look like this season?
If previous summers have seen a reluctance to be drawn into what the club’s internal targets are, there has been more boldness about their public statements in recent weeks.
Howe, CEO Darren Eales and Bruno Guimaraes – added to the leadership group after committing to the club over the close season – have all said that qualifying for Europe is a minimum requirement for Newcastle this season.
It has to be said that 2024, generally, has felt like a bit of a crashing back to earth after the giddy post-takeover days of possibility at St James’ Park.
A stunning 15 months that saw the team bounce from a relegation fight into the European elite seemed to confirm those wildest dreams that Newcastle could become a major force in short order.
But the reality of the Premier League’s financial rules has dovetailed with the realisation that the Saudi PIF’s ownership of Newcastle is much more nuanced than was initially portrayed in some places.
Chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan might have said in the club’s glossy Amazon documentary that he wants the club to be “number one” but the idea they would upend football as they did with the LIV golf project looks like a non-starter.
Instead progress will have to be hard-earned, driven through excellence and – probably – incremental. They are very well-funded in one way but to catch up with clubs that have the advantage of having hitched their wagons to the Champions League gravy train for 20 years will require virtually flawless recruitment and coaching.
It is a big ask and that means there is a measure of confusion about what success and ambition actually is at Newcastle in the long-term.
The truth is the departure of Amanda Staveley and Mehrdad Ghodoussi, confusingly briefed as a mutually agreed exit that was nevertheless reluctant, changes the dynamic slightly.
They were trusted – by fans, players, club management – and you knew there would be support for Howe and his squad whatever form on the pitch looked like. Now we’re not so sure, and PIF don’t talk and likely won’t talk so there is a new feel around the place.
Nevertheless this is a good squad with an exceptional manager. A top six place, Europa League football and a deep run in a domestic trophy represents the sort of season Newcastle now expect year in, year out.
Will Eddie Howe stay?
Howe is as short as 6-1 to be the first manager to leave his post this season.
That’s probably partly because of his extraordinary interview in Germany last month where he questioned his own future in the wake of the appointment of Paul Mitchell as the club’s new director of football.
Things have been smoothed over a bit since then but the larger issues – who does what, where do the power lines lay and does he still comfortable in the St James’ Park set-up – still linger. The England job has effectively been left open for him.
At least the removal of Mauricio Pochettino from the job market silences the theory that Mitchell, who has worked well with the Argentine in the past, might move for the former Chelsea boss if results go awry in the early months of the season.
Surely, though, Newcastle recognise what a fine coach they have and Howe is in no hurry to jump ship for an international job that would deprive him of his love for coaching and improving players on a day-to-day basis.
However unsettling the summer has been, it would be a major surprise if the long-term contract signed in secret last summer was broken before the season’s end.
Are they stronger than they were 12 months ago?
Inside the club they believe that players returning from long-term injuries and coming back to full fitness – rather than playing in the red zone as they did last season – makes them much stronger.
At times last season Howe had to name two goalkeepers on the bench just to flesh out his squad and he had precious few options to tweak things in big games after the autumn.
His players were flat out between November and February when the season threatened to fall apart and Newcastle exited the Champions League and League Cup by narrow margins.
Add into that the likes of Sean Longstaff playing through injury and you can see why Newcastle’s season frayed at the edges.
This time around they have Nick Pope back – absolutely crucial given doubts over Martin Dubravka – Joelinton at full fitness, midfielder Sandro Tonali (“like a new signing,” according to Howe) back in less than a fortnight, Joe Willock available and Harvey Barnes raring to go. That is a lot of talent to welcome back.
But there is a nagging feeling they need quality at centre-back and renewal on the right wing. A breakthrough in the transfer market would nudge them up a notch and help them look more convincing in their bid to threaten the top four.
Are they going to be busy before 30 August?
In a word: yes. A third bid for Marc Guehi was, predictably, turned down in midweek and Newcastle have now made a fourth having remained engaged in what sources call “productive” dialogue with Crystal Palace.
The bid on the table is closer to the £65m Palace are demanding and has changed the mood around the deal. Indeed the overall package is understood to be closer to Palace’s asking price, with sources indicating the deal is under consideration and – unlike the previous three offers – hasn’t been dismissed quickly. There is even some optimism a deal can be wrapped up fairly quickly.
Other options are being worked on in the background. As i revealed last week, parallel talks with a target yet to fully emerge continue.
They are “spinning plates” on right-wing options, testing the water with clubs about possible loan-to-buy deals. Noni Madueke, the Chelsea winger, could fall into that category if the Blues are as active in the market as they promise to be.
Big sales seem unlikely now, with Alexander Isak and Guimaraes considered untouchable. Liverpool’s interest in Anthony Gordon won’t come to anything now but is a long-term threat for Newcastle.
There are a band of players who could be moved on despite Howe’s reluctance to do so. That list includes Kieran Trippier, Sean Longstaff, Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron, who was courted by Charlotte FC this week.
There’s a feeling that it would take one of them to leave for Newcastle to do two incoming deals, with deft footwork in the transfer market required to duck under Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) limits.
Anything else to watch out for?
This could be a big season off the field. September brings the opening of the club’s megastore at St James’ Park, an important moment for supporters given the previous store was a byword for the neglect of the Mike Ashley era.
As i revealed last season, the club’s commercial team carried out fact-finding missions on their Champions League trips, pruning best practice from some of Europe’s elite to help construct a new store. The inspiration was Borussia Dortmund’s “best in class” effort.
The reason this matters? PSR still hems in the club so commercial and retail revenue is seen as inextricably linked to what Howe is able to put out on the pitch.
The biggest moment of the season could arguably come when Newcastle declare their intentions on the stadium.
This week saw chief operating officer Brad Miller talk about a “once-in-a-generation” investment regarding the stadium and it certainly feels as if it could be. The smart money remains on boosting capacity at their existing city centre ground although a state-of-the-art new build is what many experts have said would be the best use of money.
Newcastle will also be keeping a watchful eye on what happens with Manchester City’s challenge of the Premier League’s associated party transaction rules.
A verdict is reportedly due in two weeks – could that unlock fresh Saudi sponsorship and new revenue streams. If City are successful, it could set a precedent allowing Newcastle to benefit from more Saudi deals.
Finally there are some very big contract calls to come. Seven potential first teamers are out of contract in the summer of 2025 – including Trippier, Dan Burn, Wilson, Fabian Schar and captain Jamaal Lascelles among them – so there is a chance for a major overhaul.
But even more critical are the contract talks with Isak and Gordon that will become more intense after the summer transfer window. Locking them into longer deals will give Newcastle security.
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