If you want to understand what an unprecedented season Manchester City are facing, head to the bookmakers.
The club are 8-5 favourites to win a fifth successive Premier League title and 11-1 to be relegated. For reference, Aston Villa are 250-1 to go down.
For that we should look no further than the reckoning approaching in the courtroom over the next nine months.
This is arguably the most important period in City’s history and that could make this the most challenging season of the Pep Guardiola era.
The 115 charges loom large
A distraction or a doomsday scenario? The cloud that has hung over the Etihad for approaching two years will finally shift over the course of this season and whatever happens on the pitch will surely be dwarfed by this legal battle of a generation.
Executives working for rival Premier League clubs, like the rest of us, have little insight into the exact state of the case but are acutely aware of the stakes of the battle.
One pointed out to i that it’s far from inconceivable that City earn the most points on the pitch but end up in the Championship for the 2025-6 season. Let that sink in.
First, here’s what we know: City face charges related to alleged financial irregularity on an unprecedented scale in the modern game.
It has also been confirmed that the case will be heard before the end of this campaign – reports, unconfirmed by City or the Premier League, suggest a September start date. They have also claimed the trial will take 10 weeks and a verdict could be delivered by the start of 2025.
Every party spoken to by i can also agree on one thing: whatever the outcome, it will shake English football to its core, with ramifications that ripple far further than East Manchester.
But, says Stefan Borson, a former financial advisor to City and expert on football law, the real story here is one of uncertainty. No one, not even those in the boardroom at the Etihad or at the top of the Premier League, has any idea about how this will play out.
That being the case, we should not expect a neat, swift resolution.
“If you take what’s been written about the case this week at face value, there are a few interesting points,” Borson tells i.
“The first is there has been no settlement, everyone is gearing up for a hearing.
“The second is the length of the ‘trial’ is being reported as 10 weeks. That is a very long civil/commercial trial. Even quite major claims with complexity and potential allegations of fraud are often five or six weeks.
“Ten weeks is an enormous amount and implies a huge amount of ground will covered, both in terms of submissions by barristers and witness evidence. Presumably, there will also be a two sets of expert witness evidence as well, which tells you there’s going to be vast complexity and an abundance of cross-examination of witnesses as well.
“What I think that means is that the idea that there will be a decision at the start of the year is misleading. The written decision of the Independent Commission will run to hundreds of pages and the panel will not want to rush that job and risk an appeal picking up on something in the judgment.
“Assuming the hearing is running for most of the final quarter of 2024, I think it’s just about possible you might get a decision some time in March but then there is the appeal. If City lose on anything except the non co-operation piece, it is inevitable they will appeal.
“The idea you’d get an appeal in, processed and decided all by the end of the season feels extremely unlikely to me. So, if there is an appeal, I wouldn’t expect it to all be tidied up this season.”
He says a “worst-case scenario” is that it hangs over the club into the 2025-26 season.
And if they are given a 100-point tariff which sees them relegated? Borson feels City would have some success arguing that – unlike Everton and Nottingham Forest, where the punishment was applied immediately – relegation would have to be postponed pending an appeal.
It is a mess and the club have done a good line in defiance since the charges were announced all the way back in February 2023. They continue to insist they are innocent, welcoming their day in court. The message on day one following the charges was it is “business as usual” and, two titles – including a Treble – later, it does feel a bit like that.
“It’s above my pay grade, but I know City have the best team to deal with it and are confident of challenging the charges,” Paul Dickov, a club ambassador and regular on City’s in-house TV station, tells i.
“I am sure the media headlines will cause some disruptions, but I don’t fear relegation. I know the owners take this very seriously and will challenge the charges in the right way.”
Pep Guardiola’s future
Guardiola is into the final year of his contract and as the months tick by, the questions will multiply.
Sources tell i that the relationship between City’s executives and the manager is built on trust and co-operation, so there’s confidence an agreement can be brokered. This is not an antagonistic negotiation.
Could it prove corrosive over the course of the season? Jurgen Klopp’s shock desire to leave Liverpool drained attention and bandwidth at Anfield and if it wasn’t the reason their title tilt evaporated, it might have been a contributing factor.
Inside the Etihad they appear relaxed. A record fifth successive title and overturning the Real Madrid dynasty in the Champions League provides enough motivation for an obsessive like Guardiola.
“Being with City in pre-season Pep looks fresh and revitalised, he looks ready to make it five in a row,” Dickov says. He knows how important it is to keep him.
“He is the best. I know the club don’t want Pep to leave, but with mutual respect, they will allow Pep to make the decision in his own him.
“He has been incredible for Man City, he is irreplaceable, but City will have contingency plans in place should Pep decide to move on.
“I am sure Pep may well have a say in who could come in next as well to continue the legacy he leaves. I am sure it will also come up in press conferences this season, but Pep has earned the right to leave when he wants.”
Drained players could be an issue
Ruben Dias posted a picture on social media of City’s potential schedule this season. Taking in two extra Champions League matchdays and the Fifa Club World Cup it looks daunting.
And that is before we consider Dias played 45 times for his club last season, along with seven times for Portugal. Recovery time is now measured in days rather than weeks or months and when you play for a club likely to go deep in most competitions, it could become a problem.
i was present in Madrid in April when Rodri admitted he was exhausted and in need of a rest. He subsequently played through to mid-July as part of Spain’s victorious Euro 2024 side.
Guardiola’s energy levels don’t seem to have dipped in the same way Klopp said his did but he has been vocal in calling for change. Could City’s own relentlessness make them especially susceptible?
Squad stasis can go both ways
Selling Julian Alvarez to Atletico Madrid for £81m is the sort of power move we’ve come to expect from City.
Allowing a hugely important first-team player to leave without much of a fight would be a sign of weakness elsewhere but at City it’s a reflection of their driving recruitment philosophy: if a player doesn’t want to be here, sell him.
They remain in the market for a replacement and Eberechi Eze’s release clause makes him attainable. Oscar Bobb, who looked primed for a big season, has been sidelined for up to four months with a broken leg.
There remains a nagging suspicion that Arsenal are getting closer to City. If they sign the forward they desperately need they will have improved while City – barring the signing of Savinho – have largely just maintained their admittedly stellar squad strength.
Paul Dickov was speaking to i on behalf of William Hill
from Football - inews.co.uk https://ift.tt/sJO59c7
Post a Comment