Tottenham‘s forwards have generally been absolved from blame after defeat in recent seasons given the consistent excellence of Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, but after Saturday’s north London derby Antonio Conte highlighted his team’s lack of efficiency or care in attack.
“In the first half, we felt the possibility to win the game,” Conte said. “We had a lot of chances to exploit much better the situation. Every time we played [out from defence] we overcome the pressure and we had a lot of space and many times we made a mistake in the last pass.”
Conte’s assessment was certainly valid. There were a handful of times when Spurs, camped in their own third for large swathes of the match, managed to bypass Arsenal’s press only for a poor pass, a poor decision, or both, to undermine their progress. Son was particularly culpable, overhitting his final ball on multiple occasions.
But to pin Tottenham’s defeat on wastefulness in attack or Emerson Royal’s foolish red card would be to overlook an issue that has been apparent in virtually every game this season: Spurs rarely give the impression that they are in any degree of control. They are still, for all intents and purposes, a counter-attacking team.
When the approach works, as it did during the thrilling 3-2 win against Manchester City at the Etihad in February, it looks inspired. But when it doesn’t, as was the case at the weekend, it inevitably draws criticism.
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“I have to say I thought Spurs were awful. I thought that their ambition was poor, I thought that they played too deep. I think it sent a message to Arsenal. Arsenal won the game, they won the game well and it makes the team that are trying that tactic of sitting back look really poor.”
Possession isn’t everything, as Leicester famously demonstrated when they won the Premier League in 2015-16 despite having less of the ball than 17 clubs in the division. But after Arsenal ground down Spurs and Manchester City pulverised United with 65 and 54 per cent possession respectively, it is difficult to make an argument against Neville’s assertion that control is increasingly becoming king.
Over the past five campaigns, the team that has won the Premier League title has done so with a minimum of 63 per cent possession; the last title-winning team to achieve less was Conte’s Chelsea in 2016-17. Even then, that side had an average rate of 55 per cent; Tottenham are currently on 48 per cent which places them 12th in the league.
Another statistic that highlights Tottenham’s lack of control is the number of shots Hugo Lloris has faced in the opening eight games. Spurs have faced as many as Bournemouth (127) and only Everton (135) have given up more. In contrast, the tallies for the league’s early pace-setters Arsenal and City are 58 and 51 respectively.
A positive spin can be put on that record: only 24.4 per cent of those shots on Spurs’ goal have been on target which is the lowest rate across the entire division. That indicates that Spurs are at least limiting their opponents to low-quality chances, not that that mattered much when Thomas Partey beat Lloris with a shot that had an expected goals (xG) value of 0.02 at the weekend.
Conversely, Tottenham rank fifth in the league for shots (115), which is a reasonable placing. But by having fewer shots than their opponents, Spurs are banking on their attackers to be more clinical every time. In comparison, City have had 89 shots more than they have faced, a ratio that will see them outscore the other team more often than not.
Rival teams are managing to permeate Spurs’ midfield block too easily and a possible solution could be to tweak the formation.
Not since a limp 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge in January, when they were set up in a rigid-looking 4-4-2, have Spurs deviated from a 3-4-3 system in the league. Conte’s hands were tied last season due to a lack of depth in central midfield, but the arrival of Yves Bissouma and return to fitness of Oliver Skipp means that he has four players battling for two positions with Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Rodrigo Bentancur the first-choice pairing.
Conte hinted at switching to 3-5-2 before the derby and he may have done so had Bissouma been fit enough to start. It is a system that he has used to great effect previously with Juventus, Italy and Inter Milan, but has so far been reluctant to replicate at Spurs. That could change if Conte wants to make his team more solid and less easy to play through in the hectic period leading up to the World Cup.
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