Holding back Mohamed Salah for the decisive penalty against the Ivory Coast was always going to be a dangerous strategy. Had his team-mates not converted their own spot-kicks, there was every chance his country would have bowed out without their talisman having an influence on the shootout at all.
It could have backfired spectacularly, but it did not and in scenarios like these, there are few forwards better steeled to deliver.
As it transpired, it was certainly a more fortuitous round of 16 for his Liverpool team-mate Sadio Mane, who ended Senegal’s win over Cape Verde in a hospital bed after a sickening clash of heads.
Yet both have made it to the last eight as the tournament enters its final stages over the next week.
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Burkina Faso
Over the last decade, Burkina Faso have established a reputation as Afcon’s great overachievers. Despite never qualifying for the World Cup (missing out to Algeria for 2022), the Stallions reached the final in 2013, finished third in 2017 and have now reached the quarter-finals in Cameroon after a victory on penalties over Gabon in the last-16.
This tournament is also being played out to the backdrop of a military coup back home, with President Roch Kabore overthrown after discontent in the country over his inability to thwart a rise in Islamist insurgency. News reports suggest that Kabore had survived an assassination attempt on Monday, while West African bloc Ecowas condemned the coup as a mutinous power grab.
Strengths: Despite the standard of the Burkinabe league being poor, the country has increasingly been able to export players to high-class European leagues and they form the core of a team that has the potential to trouble Tunisia in their quarter-final. Central defender Edmond Tapsoba is likely to make a move from Bayer Leverkusen to an elite club soon. Aston Villa’s Bertrand Traore is their most likely goalscorer.
Weaknesses: Goals have been a problem, and Tunisia will be their toughest opponent to break down. Burkina Faso have scored once in each of their four matches and struggled to stretch ten-man Gabon in their last-16 game before winning on penalties. The worry is that Tunisia may make the quarter-final attritional and prove just too strong.
Breakout star of the tournament: Gustavo Sangare hadn’t played a competitive international before this tournament, but the central midfielder has become their creative force and offers an alternative to Bertrand Traore’s pace and dribbling. At 25, he plays his football in France’s Ligue 2 for Quevilly.
Cameroon
The host nation’s impressive start to the tournament has been platformed by the goalscoring of Vincent Aboubakar, who has double the number of goals of any other player at the tournament. They took seven points from a comparatively gentle group stage draw and then struggled against Comoros despite their opponents only having 13 fit players, an outfield player in goal and being reduced to ten men after seven minutes. With Gambia to come in the quarter-finals, another favourable draw at this stage of a major tournament, Cameroon are now joint favourites to win the competition as hosts.
But the Comoros game also brought tragedy with a crush that led to the loss of at least eight lives and left others with serious injuries.
Strengths: The goals of Aboubakar – known as “Aboutcho” in Cameroon – have been a revelation. Not only is he the overwhelming favourite to be the tournament’s top goalscorer, but if Cameroon do win the Afcon final on 6 February then Aboubakar will immediately join Roger Milla and Samuel Eto’o in the pantheon of heroic Cameroonian strikers.
Weaknesses: Cameroon are yet to keep a clean sheet at Afcon, conceding once to all four opponents they have faced. The slight concern amongst supporters is that their comparatively gentle route to the quarter-finals has masked any deficiencies in the team that could be exploited in the latter stages of the tournament.
Breakout star of the tournament: Away from Aboubakar, who is the leader of this team and at 30 now plays his football in Saudi Arabia, left-back Nouhou Tolo has been rock solid in defence and allowed Karl Toko Ekambi to stay high up the pitch. Nouhou is only 24 and moved directly from his home country to Seattle Sounders in MLS when still a teenager.
Gambia
The surprise package of Afcon 2021. Gambia had never previously qualified for a major tournament and were the lowest-ranked team (150th in Fifa’s rankings) when this year’s competition began. But they took advantage of Tunisia’s sluggish start to the competition and an opening game against Mauritania – who lost every group match – to secure second spot in Group F and then upset Guinea in the last-16.
With all the pressure on hosts Cameroon ahead of their quarter-final, Gambia truly believe – as they did before their last-16 tie – that they have the tools to cause another shock and reach the semi-finals. That was virtually unthinkable three weeks ago.
Strengths: Musa Barrow is the superstar of the team, producing the best football of his international career in this tournament and contributing two goals and two assists in four matches. But the real key to Gambia’s success is their core of Serie A players. Six of their squad play their football in Italy, including the spine of their team.
Weaknesses: Gambia’s progression through this tournament has been largely formulaic. All three of their victories have come via the same 1-0 scoreline. They sacrifice possession (37.6 per cent on average over their four matches) and look to maximise their opportunities in front of goal (19 of the 24 teams at Afcon have registered more shots per match). The question is whether that approach is sustainable against an opponent such as Cameroon.
Breakout star of the tournament: While most of Gambia’s Italian cohort ply their trade in Serie A, central midfielder Yusupha Bobb has spent the last five years in Serie C, where he currently plays for mid-table Piacenza. Bobb’s fine pass assisted Barrow’s winner against Guinea. He has played every minute of Gambia’s last three matches.
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It’s pretty hard to know what to make of Tunisia so far. They have reached the quarter-finals for the fourth consecutive Afcon, escaping the upsets inflicted upon Ghana and Algeria in the group stage. They limped through Group F with a handsome win over minnows Mauritania and surprise defeats to Mali and Gambia, but then surprised Nigeria in the last-16, who had been the most impressive team in the tournament until that point.
Head coach Mondher Kebaier might well suggest – and with good reason – that the group stages are nothing and the knockouts are everything. If the Nigeria win suggests that Tunisia are growing into this tournament, a quarter-final tie against Burkina Faso provides a wonderful opportunity to evaporate all the angst provoked by their dismal defeat against Gambia.
Strengths: Durability? Only four teams left in the tournament have registered more shots on target per game than Tunisia, who would stress that they have simply not gained full value for their performances so far. But the key to success at a major tournament is lasting the distance through on-pitch adversity and Tunisia have certainly managed that.
Weaknesses: Tunisia have only scored one goal outside the comfortable win over Mauritania and the issue has been getting centre-forward Seifeddine Jaziri into dangerous areas. Wahbi Khazri offers a threat down the left, and that may be enough to get past Burkina Faso, but Tunisia are unlikely to win the tournament without being more productive in the penalty area.
Breakout star of the tournament: Difficult, given the age profile of Tunisia’s squad and the lack of minutes afforded to Manchester United youngster Hannibal Mejbri. But Montasser Taibi is a 23-year-old central defender who joined Rubin Kazan from Benevento last summer and has played every minute in Tunisia’s campaign thus far.
Morocco
Given the range of opponents, the fairly dominant manner in which they won their group and the different types of victories they have managed (twice coming from behind to win and draw, twice winning whilst keeping a clean sheet), there’s an argument to make that Morocco have been the strongest team at Afcon so far. Youssef En-Nesyri has finally scored, Sofiane Boufal is contributing goals and Achraf Hakimi is the best attacking full-back at the tournament by some distance.
The fly in the ointment comes with the quarter-final draw. Morocco’s game against Egypt could, in any other edition of this tournament, have legitimately been the final. Morocco must win that and probably beat a host team who have their tails up just for a place in the final. But don’t bet against them.
Strengths: With Hakimi and Adam Masina overlapping and allowing Sofiane Boufal to drift centrally, Morocco remain committed to their strategy of short passing outside the penalty area, waiting for a slip in defensive concentration. They have created 39 chances at Afcon so far, only five of which have been from long balls. That is the lowest ratio of any team left in the tournament by some distance.
Weaknesses: It has been covered well by their teammates (Boufal and Hakimi are Morocco’s two most prolific shot-takers at this tournament so far), Morocco’s strikers had been a little quiet until En-Nesyri’s goal against Malawi. Their two starting centre forwards for the last-16 tie have only managed nine shots between them all tournament and less than half of those have been on target. Can you win this competition without a prolific striker? Perhaps.
Breakout star of the tournament: We know plenty about Boufal and Hakimi, Morocco’s best players so far. But Standard Liege central midfielder Selim Amallah has also stepped up. He ranks second in the squad for chances created, dribbles completed and tackles made; that all-action style is the perfect fit for this team.
Senegal
The pre-tournament favourites are into the quarter-finals, but nobody is quite sure how well they are playing. They won their group despite scoring one goal (and that a 97th minute penalty) and then only beat Cape Verde after their opponents were reduced to nine men, including the dismissal of their first-choice goalkeeper.
Mane is, unsurprisingly, leading the team, but he was substituted after a horrible head injury in the last-16. He was smiling after he left the pitch, but we will wait to hear concussion reports before discovering if he is fit for the quarter-final. Without him, Mali will be confident of causing a huge upset.
Strengths: Their defensive resilience. You might argue that Senegal are yet to face a high-class opponent, but they have only allowed 7.7 shots per game so far, the second best record in the competition behind Morocco. With Napoli’s Kalidou Koulibaly and Paris Saint-Germain’s Abdou Diallo in combination in front of the world’s best goalkeeper, Senegal are set up perfectly for knockout stage football. I predicted them to win the tournament in our bumper preview and I’m sticking with it.
Weaknesses: It isn’t that Senegal aren’t creating chances (their 54 ranks only behind Tunisia of the quarter-final teams), but their finishing has let them down. They have had 35 shots from inside the penalty area but scored only two goals from open play. When they face a more elite opponent, that will have to change. But then they might reach the final with a route of Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea and Tunisia. The top half of the draw is the place to be.
Breakout star of the tournament: So many of this Senegal team are already household names, but Boulaye Dia only joined Villarreal from Reims last summer and he impressed in the Uefa Super Cup against Chelsea in August. Dia can either play as a right-sided forward or central striker, allowing Mane to roam as he pleases.
Egypt
If Egypt and Salah are going to light up this tournament, they’re certainly keeping their powder dry. If we were being generous we would point out that they have faced Ivory Coast and Nigeria, two of the most impressive teams in the tournament, and ultimately lasted longer than both. If we were being brutal, we’d say that Egypt had been a little dull given that they have the best player in the world on current form.
Quieroz’s side have struggled to create clear cut chances, struggled to get Salah into space, too readily left him isolated and asked him to deal with direct balls over his head. But then you can also see them shutting Morocco down and taking another knockout match to extra-time and penalties to try and win through strangulation rather than sensation.
Strengths: Their defence has been impeccable since Kelechi Iheanacho’s opener for Nigeria. They allowed Guinea-Bissau and Sudan to have four shots on target in total, keeping clean sheets in both games and then dropped the pace of the match to squeeze the Ivorians just when it appeared that they might seize advantage. Quieroz does not care for your complaints about aesthetics; he’s here to win.
Weaknesses: No team in the tournament is averaging fewer shots on their goal than Morocco, and the fear for Egypt must be that their opponents simply have more weapons to hurt them with. Can Quieroz really hope to shut down another game, fail to service Salah effectively and ride his luck again?
Breakout star of the tournament: Omar Kamal is one of 22 home-based players in this Egypt squad, and at 28 is on the old side for a breakout star. But having played all of his career in Egyptian football and plenty of it as a winger, he has become an excellent defensive right-back during this tournament and thus allowed Salah to stay high up the pitch without worrying about defensive responsibilities.
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Equatorial Guinea
If Gambia are the lowest-ranked side still left in the tournament, Equatorial Guinea’s progress is no less surprising. While Gambia have called upon a crop of young Serie A players, Juan Micha’s squad is largely assembled from Spanish football – largely in the third tier – and their captain Emilio Nsue hasn’t even had a club since November. He’s playing the Roger Milla role of stepping into the limelight and leading his team on.
Having lost their first game to Ivory Coast, the National Thunder shocked Algeria and then beat Sierra Leone by the same scoreline. That run may well come to an end against Senegal in the quarter-finals, but then you would have got good odds on Equatorial Guinea outlasting any of their group stage peers in this competition. They remember beating Tunisia at the same stage in 2015 only too well.
Strengths: They have a strategy and they’re sticking to it. There’s little doubt that Equatorial Guinea got a little lucky against Algeria and Mali, allowing 27 shots without conceding, but they aim to cede possession, stay deep and play direct balls to young striker Dorian Hanza. There are valid questions about what happens if they go behind, but for now it’s working a treat.
Weaknesses: Equatorial Guinea have only averaged three shots on target per game and more than half of their shots have been taken from outside the penalty area. The result of those low-percentage chances is obvious: Equatorial Guinea have scored two goals in the tournament, one from a corner and another from a free-kick routine and long-range finish.
Breakout star of the tournament: Goalkeeper Jesus Owono was their star against Mali, saving two penalties in the shootout. He received his first senior international call-up at 17, made his La Liga debut for Alaves two days before leaving for Afcon and in doing so became the first Equatoguinean to play in Spain’s top flight.
Full schedule
Quarter-finals
- Gambia vs Cameroon – Saturday 29 January, 4pm
- Burkina Faso vs Tunisia – Saturday 29 January, 7pm
- Egypt vs Morocco – Sunday 30 January, 3pm
- Senegal vs Equatorial Guinea – Sunday 30 January, 7pm
Semi-finals
- TBD vs TBD – Wednesday 2 February, 7pm
- TBD vs TBD – Thursday 3 February, 7pm
Match for 3rd place
- TBD vs TBD – Sunday 6 February, 4pm
Final
- TBD vs TBD – Sunday 6 February, 7pm
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