Jurgen Klopp was only reflecting the mood. In October 2017, with his wonderful air of over-extravagant weariness as if he has been asked the same question six times in a row, Liverpool’s manager suggested that Manchester City could have the title wrapped up by January.
“You are English, have you ever known a team win the title in January? No. It’s totally unrealistic,” was Pep Guardiola’s response. His annoyance was split between the question asked and the attempt by a rival to manufacture a little pressure. Deep down, he knew. January 2nd, City had a 15-point lead at the top that they never came close to ceding.
Four seasons on, Klopp’s assessment barely seems controversial. In three of the last four seasons, title-winning teams have enjoyed a margin of victory of 12 points or greater; title races have become extended victory laps. But at the time, the notion of a title race being over in January was absurd. In the previous decade, only twice had a team held a lead greater than three points at the start of January; four times the top two had been separated on goal difference. We have entered a new age of marathons being run at a sprinter’s pace.
Over the last fortnight, Guardiola has again moved to dissuade any notion that Manchester City are champions elect while just about everyone else makes peace with the reality that they are. That’s partly a move to iron out any complacency. Against Leicester City last month, when Guardiola’s side went from 4-0 to 4-3 in 11 minutes, a theory emerged of Manchester City as a hackneyed blockbuster monster. Do your best Don LaFontaine impression: “The only way they can be destroyed is if they destroy themselves”.
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The same is true of an insurmountable lead at the top. We often remember – and thus give the most credit to – those title winners who are chased until the finish line because those triumphs produce exceptional, season-changing moments (for City, think Aguero 2012 and Kompany 2019) and require demonstrable displays of grit and guts. Take a commanding position into the last three months of the season and you either deliver at a canter or are perceived as potential chokers. The same credit is rarely given for early season form.
But City really are champions regent. They have a ten-point lead at the top (although Liverpool can make that eight with their game in hand). They have already played each of their Big Six peers away from home and, just as instructively, they have also played the three fixtures they lost against non-Big Six opponents last season and won them all with an aggregate score of 14-3. Even if City drop as many points in their next 17 games as they have in the last 20, Liverpool would have to win every game to pip them.
This is relentless Manchester City season, like Camus’ plague “an endless trampling that flattens everything in its path”. In their last two title victories, City have won 17 from 18 from January onwards (2018/19) and won 13 straight league games to start the year (2020/21).
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And they started early this season. City’s current run of 11 straight league wins has contained narrow victories – West Ham, Aston Villa, Wolves – that gave way to crushing wins – 7-0, 4-0, 6-3. Within that run, City have changed from a team that creates lots of chances and takes few to a side that takes almost all of them.
What this all means for the Premier League is a little complicated, not only because it offers further hard evidence that state ownership, combined with sensible delegation, really does pay. Aside from the moral quandary, it helps neither broadcasters, sponsors nor armchair supporters for another title race to be over in January.
But you just see if Manchester City care, and why should they? If Chelsea are merely the latest of City’s opponents to surrender to their mesmeric fluidity and find coping with their attack to be as tough as juggling five bars of wet soap, the title race really might be over. Whatever Guardiola might claim to the contrary.
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