When Fabio Cannavaro beat Gianluigi Buffon and Thierry Henry to the Ballon d’Or in 2006, little did we know that this would be the most recent year without at least one of Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi making the top three.
The duo have dominated the award ever since, with Messi winning France Football’s award on seven occasions to Ronaldo’s five.
Since 2007, Messi has made the podium every year bar 2018, while Ronaldo has only missed out in 2010 and 2021.
It looks safe to assume, however, that neither will feature in the top three for 2022.
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France Football’s slight changes mean the award will account for the full 2021-22 season, while the prize is set to be awarded before this winter’s World Cup.
When is the Ballon d’Or announced?
The award is expected to be handed out in October 2022, a signal of the change from judging on the calendar year to the domestic season prior.
“Before we were judging based on two half seasons. This will be clearer,” France Football editor Pascal Ferre said. “It’s an opportunity to give it a new impetus.”
There will also be a panel of 100 journalists from across the world voting for the men’s award, down from 170.
That means, regardless of any joy Messi or Ronaldo may have on the international stage, their domestic campaigns have left them trailing with the bookmakers when it comes to the Ballon d’Or, with one standout candidate expected to claim the award.
The Ballon d’Or favourite
It is Karim Benzema’s to lose, it would seem, with the 34-year-old firmly at the wheel of Real Madrid’s Champions League triumph.
After a second-half hat-trick stunned PSG in the last-16, he repeated the feat against Chelsea in the quarters, scored again in the second leg, then netted three times across the two semi-final legs with Manchester City.
It would be quicker to list the games where Benzema has not scored this season, for on top of his 15 Champions League goals, a tally of 26 in 30 league games has helped Real reclaim La Liga from rivals Atletico Madrid.
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What a suspended sentence means, after Karim Benzema found guilty in Valbuena blackmail case24 November, 2021He did not score in the final against Liverpool, but Benzema has likely done enough to win the Ballon d’Or, and it would make him only the second player since 2008 to win the prize that isn’t named Messi or Ronaldo – his Real teammate Luka Modric breaking that duopoly when winning in 2018.
Ballon d’Or winner 2022 odds
Odds per Betfair at time of update on 7 June:
- Karim Benzema: 1-9
- Mohamed Salah: 10-1
- Sadio Mane: 12-1
- Kylian Mbappe: 20-1
- Lionel Messi: 25-1
- Virgil van Dijk: 25-1
- Robert Lewandowski: 33-1
- Kevin De Bruyne: 33-1
- Harry Kane: 33-1
- Vinicius Junior: 33-1
The contenders
The duo deemed most capable of upsetting Benzema are Liverpool forwards Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane.
Their odds lengthened after the Champions League final, however, as a Real win only served to shorten Benzema’s odds.
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Nevertheless, the pair enjoyed memorable campaigns.
Salah shared the Premier League Golden Boot with Son Heung-min, with golazos against Manchester City and Watford the pick of his goals this season, while he also led the league for assists.
The Egyptian would perhaps have pushed Benzema closer had he not suffered heartbreak at international level, with his pain largely inflicted by Mane, who scored the winning penalty in the Africa Cup of Nations final between Senegal and Egypt, and again when the two sides met for a place in the Qatar World Cup.
The outsiders
One has been sounded out as a future Ballon d’Or winner, the other should arguably have collected the prize at least once the past two years, but on this occasion it looks as though both Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski will fall short.
Both top scorers in their respective leagues this season, Mbappe also led the way for assists in Ligue 1, while Lewandowski won the European Golden Shoe as well after scoring 35 Bundesliga goals.
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The same could go for Kevin De Bruyne, who has the shortest odds of any Manchester City player but is out of contention after their semi-final exit to Real Madrid – that despite his “unstoppable” exploits in the Premier League.
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