When Fabio Cannavaro beat Gianluigi Buffon and Thierry Henry to the Ballon d’Or in 2006, little did we know that this would be the most recent year without at least one of Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi making the top three.
The duo have dominated the award ever since, with Messi winning France Football’s award on seven occasions to Ronaldo’s five.
Since 2007, Messi has made the podium every year bar 2018, while Ronaldo has only missed out in 2010 and 2021.
It looks safe to assume, however, that neither will feature in the top three for 2022 – a certainty in Messi’s case after he failed to make the 30-man shortlist.
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That is down to France Football’s slight change with the rules, as though Messi has started the 2022-23 campaign brightly in Paris, the award will only take into account the 2021-22 season.
When is the Ballon d’Or announced?
The awards will be handed out on 17 October 2022, a signal of the change from judging on the calendar year to the domestic season prior.
“Before we were judging based on two half seasons. This will be clearer,” France Football editor Pascal Ferre said. “It’s an opportunity to give it a new impetus.”
There will also be a panel of 100 journalists from across the world voting for the men’s award, down from 170.
Ronaldo is unlikely to make the podium as well, although he did at least make the shortlist, while there is one standout candidate expected to claim the men’s award – and a trio of Lionesses out to beat the women’s favourite to the Ballon d’Or Feminin.
The Ballon d’Or favourite
It is Karim Benzema’s to lose, it would seem, with the 34-year-old firmly at the wheel of Real Madrid’s Champions League triumph. He is the runaway favourite, according to the bookmakers.
After a second-half hat-trick stunned PSG in the last-16, he repeated the feat against Chelsea in the quarters, scored again in the second leg, then netted three times across the two semi-final legs with Manchester City.
It would be quicker to list the games where Benzema has not scored this season, for on top of his 15 Champions League goals, a tally of 26 in 30 league games has helped Real reclaim La Liga from rivals Atletico Madrid.
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Ballon d’Or winner 2022 odds
Odds per Betfair as of 15 August:
- Karim Benzema: 1-33
- Kylian Mbappe: 16-1
- Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk: 25-1
- Robert Lewandowski, Kevin De Bruyne, Harry Kane, Vinicius Junior, Sadio Mane: 33-1
Could Mane cause an upset?
Despite the odds, Sadio Mane could be the most likely player to pip Benzema to the prize, after enjoying an exceptional final season with Liverpool and captaining Senegal to AFCON glory.
His odds – as well as former teammate Mo Salah – lengthened after the Champions League final, however, as a Real win only served to shorten Benzema’s odds.
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Nevertheless, the pair enjoyed memorable campaigns.
Salah shared the Premier League Golden Boot with Son Heung-min, with golazos against Manchester City and Watford the pick of his goals this season, while he also led the league for assists.
The Egyptian would perhaps have pushed Benzema closer had he not suffered heartbreak at international level, with his pain largely inflicted by Mane, who scored the winning penalty in the Africa Cup of Nations final between Senegal and Egypt, and again when the two sides met for a place in the Qatar World Cup.
For his efforts, Mane won the African Player of the Year ahead of Salah – an indication he could place above him again come October.
Ballon d’Or 2022 men’s shortlist
- Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool, England)
- Karim Benzema (Real Madrid, France)
- Joao Cancelo (Manchester City, Portugal)
- Casemiro (Real Madrid, Brazil)
- Thibaut Courtois (Real Madrid, Belgium)
- Kevin de Bruyne (Manchester City, Belgium)
- Luis Diaz (Liverpool, Colombia)
- Fabinho (Liverpool, Brazil)
- Phil Foden (Manchester City, England)
- Erling Haaland (Manchester City, Norway)
- Sebastien Haller (Borussia Dortmund, Ivory Coast)
- Harry Kane (Tottenham, England)
- Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich, Germany)
- Rafael Leao (AC Milan, Portugal)
- Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona, Poland)
- Riyad Mahrez (Manchester City, Algeria)
- Mike Maignan (AC Milan, France)
- Kylian Mbappe (Paris St-Germain, France)
- Sadio Mane (Bayern Munich, Senegal)
- Luka Modric (Real Madrid, Croatia)
- Darwin Nunez (Liverpool, Uruguay)
- Christopher Nkunku (RB Leipzig, France)
- Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United, Portugal)
- Antonio Rudiger (Real Madrid, Germany)
- Mohamed Salah (Liverpool, Egypt)
- Bernardo Silva (Manchester City, Portugal)
- Son Heung-min (Tottenham, South Korea)
- Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool, Netherlands)
- Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid, Brazil)
- Dusan Vlahovic (Juventus, Serbia)
The outsiders
One has been sounded out as a future Ballon d’Or winner, the other should arguably have collected the prize at least once the past two years, but on this occasion it looks as though both Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski will fall short.
Both top scorers in their respective leagues last season, Mbappe also led the way for assists in Ligue 1, while Lewandowski won the European Golden Shoe as well after scoring 35 Bundesliga goals. Lewandowski has since joined Barcelona.
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The same could go for Kevin De Bruyne, who has the shortest odds of any Manchester City player but is out of contention after their semi-final exit to Real Madrid – that despite his “unstoppable” exploits in the Premier League.
Mead in contention, but Putellas favourite
England’s Euro 2022 heroics mean a trio of Lionesses have made the 20-player shortlist for the Ballon d’Or Feminin, an award still in its infancy given France Football only started handing out that prize in 2018.
Looking to join Ada Hegerberg, Megan Rapinoe and Alexia Putellas as just the fourth recipient of the award is Beth Mead, a leading contender after scoring six goals and assisting five as England won their home Euros.
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Women’s Ballon d’Or 2022 shortlist
- Selma Bacha (Lyon, France)
- Aitana Bonmati (Barcelona, Spain)
- Millie Bright (Chelsea, England)
- Lucy Bronze (Barcelona, England)
- Kadidiatou Diani (Paris St-Germain, France)
- Christiane Endler (Lyon, Chile)
- Ada Hegerberg (Lyon, Norway)
- Marie-Antoinette Katoto (Paris St-Germain, France)
- Sam Kerr (Chelsea, Australia)
- Catarina Macario (Lyon, United States)
- Beth Mead (Arsenal, England)
- Vivianne Miedema (Arsenal, Netherlands)
- Alex Morgan (San Diego Wave, United States)
- Lena Oberdorf (Wolfsburg, Germany)
- Asisat Oshoala (Barcelona, Nigeria)
- Alexandra Popp (Wolfsburg, Germany)
- Alexia Putellas (Barcelona, Spain)
- Wendie Renard (Lyon, France)
- Trinity Rodman (Washington Spirit, United States)
- Fridolina Rolfo (Barcelona, Sweden)
Putellas steered Barcelona to a perfect league campaign, where they won all 30 matches, although they fell short in the Champions League when losing the final to Lyon.
Nevertheless, Putellas is favourite to retain the prize despite missing out on Euro 2022 after picking up an ACL injury on the eve of the tournament – a devastating blow that could rule her out for the entire 2022-23 season.
Mead’s fellow Lionesses on the 20-player shortlist are Millie Bright and Lucy Bronze, although the latter was left questioning the absence of international teammate Keira Walsh, who for many was England’s best player at Euro 2022.
“Thanks but I don’t deserve this,” Bronze said on Instagram. “The best Lionesses player during the Euros was Keira Walsh. Should be the first English name in the list!”
Chelsea’s Sam Kerr will also be a top-three contender having inspired the club to the WSL and FA Cup double, so too Lyon And France captain Wendie Renard after her club won the Champions League and nation reached the Euro semi-finals.
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