After the good money comes the bad. In a sign that English football has consolidated its grip on the global game as the sport emerges from the Covid pandemic, Premier League clubs have spent £1.5bn in the summer transfer window so far.
It is a new record high for the top flight and sources have told i there will be more shelled out in what one executive expects to be an “explosive” final week of the window.
Everton’s need for strikers, Chelsea’s desire to make eye-catching signings, Newcastle putting the final touches to a squad that might – whisper it – be an outside shout for the top four.
All of that is dovetailing with rumours that the likes of Liverpool are casting the net for a midfield reinforcements. Big money could yet be spent.
Biggest Premier League net spenders in summer 2022 transfer window
- 1. Chelsea £141m
- 2. Nottingham Forest £126m
- 3. Man Utd £181m
- 4. West Ham £109m
- 5. Arsenal £98m
- 6. Spurs £73m
- 7. Wolves £71m
- 8. Newcastle £59m
- 9. Southampton £50m
- 10. Brentford £42m
- 11. Fulham £31m
- 12. Crystal Palace £26m
- 13. Bournemouth £24m
- 14. Villa £14m
- 15. Liverpool £4.5m
- 16. Leicester -£1m
- 17. Leeds -£2m
- 18. Everton -£20m
- 19. Man City -£34m
- 20. Brighton -£58m
But the eye-watering figures hide a simple truth that is acknowledged in boardrooms up and down the country: no-one wants to be doing the bulk of their business in what the same executive branded the “truly scary end of the transfer market”.
With the domestic market in danger of over-heating, European clubs can expect phone calls about their top players in the next few days.
A story involving a Premier League club probably sums it up. This forward-thinking outfit always get their ducks in a row and describe overseas clubs as “desperate” to do business with English clubs.
“They were almost elated we were on the phone to them because they knew we had the money to meet their valuation,” says one source. He recounts paying £10m less than they were originally asking for on a midfielder – yet both parties walked away happy.
Newcastle have certainly found the domestic market difficult: having sniffed around some big money Premier League deals, they have ended up breaking their transfer record by signing Alexander Isak.
Critically, Real Sociedad were prepared to accept the staggered payment schedule Newcastle proposed to navigate financial fair play requirements.
“Day by day the prices in England are going up because of bids or rumours happening elsewhere. You hear it quite a lot ‘If X is worth £40m then Y is worth at least £60m’,” a Premier League recruitment executive says.
“Teams will go abroad in the final week and I think the majority of the domestic deals done in the final week will be loans – unless you’re prepared to pay a huge premium.”
Transfer money spent per league
- Premier League – £1.5bn
- Serie A – £613m
- Bundesliga – £426m
- La Liga – £389m
- Ligue 1 – £380m
- Eredivisie – £147m
Any club willing to do that risks the wrath of their supporters for entering into the market so late and ending up with targets way down their original lists. But the alternative – of waiting until January without reinforcements – is so stark it will inevitably lead to some bad calls.
Every year it feels bizarre that so many gaps in squads are left to be filled in the final hours of the window and smart planning has been noticeable at Arsenal, Leeds, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham. This year it is particularly risky to leave it until the last minute given how steep the escalation in prices and spending has been.
The hyper-inflation was partly expected but insiders say several unexpected developments were driving it: Spurs entering the market in a big way, Chelsea’s new ownership being more “scattergun” than anticipated and Nottingham Forest’s recruitment drive, which few expected being quite as aggressive as it has been, are among them.
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It also means they can take out big loans which are mortgaged against future TV and ticket sales with virtual impunity. Almost every club in the Premier League has done that, including Newcastle whose owners are theoretically the richest in world football.
Armed with sizeable budgets, many have brokered their most important deals already. “You always want to get your business done early but that has been especially true this summer,” the executive says.
“The prices involved in domestic deals have been huge all summer but entering the final week of the transfer window they’re only going to get bigger. It’s been very difficult to find value this summer and I’d say it’s going to be impossible if you find yourself shopping in that final week.”
They cited one domestic deal which they felt they overpaid on but chose to seal after a couple of weeks of negotiations because they could feel that fees around them were “increasing aggressively”.
Biggest summer 2022 transfers so far
- 1. Aurelien Tchouameni – £72m (Monaco to Real Madrid)
- 2. Darwin Nunez – £67.5m (Benfica to Liverpool)
- 3. Casemiro – £63.3m (Real Madrid to Man Utd)
- 4. Matthijs de Ligt – £60m (Juventus to Bayern Munich)
- 5. Marc Cucurella – £58m (Brighton to Chelsea)
- 6. Erling Haaland – £54m (Dortmund to Man City)
- 7. Richarlison – £52m (Everton to Tottenham)
- 8. Raphinha – £52m (Leeds to Barcelona)
- 9. Lisandro Martinez – £51m (Leeds to Man Utd)
- 10. Raheem Sterling – £50m (Man City to Chelsea)
And there is no doubt that domestic prices have been eye-watering: Morgan Gibbs-White has cost Forest the thick end of £40m, Anthony Gordon will set Chelsea back £60m if he moves to London while Marc Cucurella is now a £50m left-back.
Compare and contrast with the £24.7m that Leeds have paid for Brenden Aaronson, who has a similar pedigree.
Alternatives to permanent deals will be appealing. “One thing that always happens in the final week is that the loan market really gets going – but I think this year there’ll be even more high-profile loan deals that happen in the last few days of the transfer window,” one agent tells i.
All eyes are on Cristiano Ronaldo, who spent last Monday sat on the bench having reiterated his desire to leave Manchester United earlier in the month. His options are limited but don’t rule out a departure – he still brings enough cache and goals to appeal to clubs in Italy, Portugal and France, where there has been interest.
Other loans may be more a case of the player pushing. Chelsea’s new owner slash technical director Todd Boelhy – who still has work to do to convince many inside the industry that he is a capable operator – holds plenty of aces ahead of any last minute shopping, with the likes of Christian Pulisic, Armando Broja and Conor Gallagher all wanted by “every club outside the top four”, according to one recruitment executive.
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“It’s almost like a perfect storm,” the agent continues. “The World Cup means you’ve got a level of really good players who aren’t automatic first choice at their clubs who are itching to get out but their clubs don’t really want to sell, or if they’re open to it they’ve been waiting to get top whack for them. You have the choice in the final week: keep an unhappy player or loan them out?”
He feels some players will not get the moves they want. An unintended consequence of the newly introduced five sub rule is that it has blocked the pipeline of young Premier League players leaving to get vital game time with EFL clubs.
The Premier League’s gold rush will undoubtedly lead to some bad calls but with money still gushing into the game, those at the top are insulated from failure.
It will show little sign of abating any time soon. Football finance expert Dan Plumley says: “The Premier League is absolutely the market leader in world football. The TV deal gives them huge spending power but a critical moment was when the deal was rolled over during the pandemic.
“That gives those clubs security. That spending power is guaranteed until 2025, so clubs can plan for more of this in the years to come.”
When does the transfer window close?
Deadline day for Premier League clubs on Thursday 1 September, with clubs needing to get their final deals agreed before the transfer window closes at 11pm.
The big deals to look out for
Everton have days to save their season
Farhad Moshiri appealed for Everton fans to “judge me on 1 September” in a statement released on the club’s website earlier this summer. At the moment, there are some jangling nerves on Merseyside, with the Toffees still looking distinctly undercooked.
With one point from a possible nine and no cutting edge, they will face a long, hard season if they don’t get the final week of the transfer window right.
The Anthony Gordon saga needs to be resolved quickly. Everton are preparing for the £60m loss of Gordon to Chelsea, while they want to bring Armando Broja in the other direction. i understands Everton will invest “every penny” of the £50m down payment for Gordon on two strikers, and Blackburn Rovers’ Chilean international striker Ben Brereton-Diaz is an option.
The potential addition of midfielders Mohammed Kudus of Ajax and Idrissa Gana Gueye from Paris Saint-Germain would add some bite, but both deals are being held up. Everton are set to be the busiest club in the final days of the window, and so much is riding on it.
Man Utd’s biggest deals still to come
Cut through all the noise and one thing is clear: Cristiano Ronaldo remains at Old Trafford with no obvious exit route. Expect the rumours around Ronaldo to intensify over the weekend – but the most obvious outcome is that he stays put.
A move for Ajax’s Brazilian winger Antony is edging closer. They are perhaps overpaying but he is a rare talent and will add firepower to the Red Devils if he does join, another piece in the Erik Ten Hag jigsaw. They also want a backup goalkeeper after allowing Dean Henderson to join Nottingham Forest on loan, and a move for Newcastle’s Martin Dubravka works for all parties.
Chelsea’s huge spending spree
Everton’s Gordon, Leicester City defender Wesley Fofana and Barcelona striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could double Chelsea’s spending as their new ownership looks to arm Thomas Tuchel with a squad to challenge for honours. None are simple deals to do and could run until the end of the window.
Bournemouth have to give Scott Parker a chance
The Cherries desperately need to navigate what Parker has admitted has been a “tricky” transfer window for the newly-promoted club. His dire warning on the eve of the season hasn’t been heeded – they are below par at centre-back and need creativity. Expect them to dip into the Championship or European market, and loans will be likely.
The finishing touches need to be applied at Newcastle
Alexander Isak is a statement signing but Newcastle are likely to add to their £100m-plus spend with their ownership group “excited” by their quick start to the season. They want a central midfielder and have kept a potential deal for Watford forward Joao Pedro bubbling away.
There is a real opportunity for the Magpies to push for Europe if they do add further.
Will Liverpool add a midfielder?
The Reds have made a slow start and need energy in their engine room, so this is a big test for Fenway Sports Group’s much-lauded transfer model.
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Jude Bellingham is the player Jurgen Klopp wants but he’s not available right now. Can they source an alternative or fast-track a deal they’ve been working on, as they did with Luis Diaz back in January?
West Ham still have ambitions
David Moyes admitted that West Ham have tried to spend big this summer, only to be rebuffed by many of their targets. They could finally be about to add some more help for marquee men Declan Rice and Thomas Soucek as they reach advanced negotiations with Lyon for playmaker Lucas Paqueta.
Leeds still need a striker
A smart window for Jesse Marsch and director of football Victor Orta has helped the club turn a healthy profit and evolve their squad. But it would be a big shame if they didn’t add the striker the club clearly need to consolidate their gains. One to watch.
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