There will be no prizes for correctly predicting the team with the most possession. Nor will there be prizes for guessing the team with the most shots or passes either.
And while it is goals that are the order of the day, the very fact this free-scoring Manchester City side are deemed far from certainties to reach the Champions League semi-finals is down to the fibra, the grit, the character of their quarter-final opponents, and the man who oversees this hyper-organised operation.
“In battles, the side with most soldiers does not win, but those who use their soldiers better.” This was Atletico Madrid boss Diego Simeone previewing their semi-final tie with Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich six years ago.
Having crossed paths only briefly in La Liga, this 2015-16 meeting was just the second time Guardiola would pit his wits against Simeone, in what was to be his final season as Bayern boss – his final chance of winning the Champions League with the German club.
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What Man City's losses this season tell us about how they will approach Everton23 February, 2022Guardiola knew what he was facing. “They’re extremely well organised, they’ve got a good structure defensively, they close space, they have a great counter-attack,” he said, before acknowledging Bayern’s need to “adapt” in order to get a result, with the first leg away in Madrid.
He opted to drop Thomas Muller, the German who had scored eight Champions League goals already that term, and what followed was a 1-0 first-leg victory for Atletico, despite Bayern’s 69 per cent possession and 19 attempts to their opponent’s 11. Saul Niguez’s solo stunner edged it, while Guardiola was left explaining Muller’s omission.
“It was nothing against him, just tactics,” Guardiola said, but this slight tinkering suggested Atletico’s approach had got in the Spaniard’s head.
Come the second leg in Germany, a deflected Xabi Alonso free-kick got Bayern off to the ideal start, and after the reinstated Muller saw his penalty saved by Jan Oblak, Antoine Griezmann’s 54th-minute strike then left the hosts requiring two goals.
Bayern could only score one more, going out on away goals despite out-shooting their opponents by 34 attempts to seven, and almost completing four times as many passes – 591-154.
Fast forward to 2022 and Guardiola is entering the business end of his sixth attempt at winning Manchester City their first Champions League title.
This side, capable of breaching any defence and ripping up the gameplan of any opposing team, has consistently fallen short in the Champions League, with Guardiola developing a reputation for overthinking in Europe: last doing so when dropping Fernandinho and Rodri for the Champions League final defeat to Chelsea, and making equally questionable selections when exiting to Lyon in 2020, and to Liverpool and Spurs in the two seasons prior.
It is a point not lost on Guardiola, who woke up Monday morning choosing sarcasm when asked about a susceptibility that has left City wanting.
"In the Champions League I always I overthink,” he said. “New tactics, tomorrow you will see a new one. I overthink a lot, that's why I have very good results in the Champions League. The movements are different, the players are all different with different personalities. That's why I overthink and create stupid tactics. Tonight I take an inspiration and I'm going to do incredible tactics tomorrow. We play with 12 tomorrow.”
Guardiola is no stranger to displaying such mordacity in press conferences. It comes with the territory, for as a manager who rarely loses, there will always be greater scrutiny on those rare defeats, often on the grandest of stages. A microscopic look at what went wrong when it usually goes so right.
Guardiola ‘overthinking’ in Europe
vs Chelsea in 2021 Champions League final – Dropped Fernandinho and Rodri, starting Bernardo Silva, Ilkay Gundogan and Phil Foden in midfield and Kevin De Bruyne up front in the 1-0 defeat.
vs Lyon in 2020 quarter-final – Guardiola opted to match Lyon’s three-man central defence, but the change in formation led to a 3-1 defeat.
vs Tottenham in 2019 quarter-final first leg – De Bruyne and Leroy Sane were surprise omissions from the starting XI as Spurs won 1-0 at home before advancing 4-4 on away goals.
vs Liverpool in 2018 quarter-final first leg – Guardiola started four central midfielders, Gundogan, Fernandinho, De Bruyne and David Silva, in 3-0 defeat before Liverpool advanced.
vs Atletico Madrid in 2016 semi-final first leg – When Bayern boss, Guardiola dropped Thomas Muller, who had been a regular and scored eight Champions League goals that term, for the 1-0 loss in Madrid. Atletico would then advance 2-2 on away goals.
vs Real Madrid in 2014 semi-final second leg – Trailing the tie 1-0, Guardiola opted for a 4-2-4 formation in the second leg at home, but Bayern lost 4-0. "I got it wrong, man. I got it totally wrong. It's a monumental f--- up. A total mess. The biggest f--- up of my life as a coach,” Guardiola said, per Martí Perarnau in the journalist’s book, 'Pep Confidential: The Inside Story of Pep Guardiola's First Season at Bayern Munich'.
Team selection has therefore been the easy go-to with Guardiola. Blessed with talent and therefore options at City, this ability to rotate stands them in good stead during Premier League campaigns, but arguably familiarity is more important in Europe given the delicate nature of knockout football – and the quality of opposition.
Guardiola knows this, and also that his selection will be heavily scrutinised. His reaction tells you of this irritation, but once again, as he did at Bayern six years ago, he stressed the need to “adapt and adjust” against Atletico.
Tough, match-defining decisions will therefore have to be made, but stray too far from the norm and City will be out of step against a side who know exactly what they’re doing.
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“We will do what we always do; work as a team, fight to the death for every ball, treat the game as though it was a final,” Saul had said when Atletico met Bayern in 2016. The same will ring true for Simeone’s soldiers in Manchester on Tuesday and Madrid next week.
City may well know what’s coming, but still, it will be like nothing they’ve faced before.
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