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Likely strengths
For the first time in goodness knows how long, Aston Villa can virtually boast two decent players for every position. The depth is arguably like nothing anywhere else outside the top six. Villa’s list of central midfielders alone: Douglas Luiz, Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn, Marvelous Nakamba, Jacob Ramsey, Morgan Sanson.
That extends to the rest of the team too. We do not quite know Steve Gerrard’s first-choice team, but he has two proficient creators in Emi Buendia and Philippe Coutinho, two higher-class centre forwards in Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins and three central defenders (Tyrone Mings, Diego Carlos and Ezri Konsa) who will all expect to start. Mings losing the captaincy to John McGinn suggests that he may be the unhappy member of that trio.
Not only does that create competition for places, it also allows for Gerrard to be flexible with his formations if he chooses. In Lucas Digne and Matty Cash, he has two players who could easily work as full-backs or wing-backs.
Without European football, Villa should expect to finish far higher than their 14th place last season. The key will lie in improving their home form. Villa won only six league games at Villa Park last season, fewer home wins than Crystal Palace, Brentford and Wolves. Winning more away league games than Manchester United – even that Manchester United – was something to be proud of.
Make Villa Park more of a fortress and they can bridge the seven-point gap to the top eight from last season. That middle pack will be tightly bunched again – results in the games between those six or seven teams will be crucial.
Likely weaknesses
There were three issues from last season that Gerrard has to solve and, to be frank, I’m not wholly convinced that he will because they tended to dog them throughout 2021-22. The first was the concession of early goals. Villa conceded nine times in the opening 10 minutes of their league games, joint highest in the league with Aston Villa. At home, that often led to moans and groans and added pressure that they struggled to cope with.
But even when taking the lead, Villa were careless. They lost five league matches last season having taken a lead, most notably at home to Wolves in October (2-0 lead) and on the final day against Manchester City (2-0 lead). That record of five losses after going ahead was matched only by Southampton, the Premier League’s masters of wasting any advantages. It must improve if Gerrard is to make progress.
Finally, there’s a slight suspicion that Gerrard occasionally falls into the same trap that befell Frank Lampard at Chelsea. When Villa are struggling to create chances from open play, the answer can often be to push more players forward, particularly the full-backs. That led to Villa being exposed on the counter attack. The issue might be eased by Kamara, but Villa must beware that he cannot be expected to hold back the tide alone.
Summer business
No club in the Premier League got their work done earlier – all three officially began their contracts on 1 July. That’s a sign that Villa did at least have a longer-term strategy in place and were shopping on a “who we really want” rather than “right, who can we buy?” policy. It usually correlates with those signings being successful.
Kamara is a very savvy move, particularly on a free transfer. There is no guarantee that every Ligue 1 central midfielder will turn into N’Golo Kante (see Boubakary Soumaré’s first season at Leicester last year for details), but Kamara was wanted by a host of clubs and he may well be the holding midfielder Gerrard has craved.
Diego Carlos was equally feted, and provides the competition that Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings need. We don’t know yet which of the three will be forced to sit on the bench more than the others, but it’s quite possible that Mings loses his first-team place. That’s a statement of intent about the squad depth.
Coutinho is a lot more complicated. We wrote repeatedly in The Score last season about Gerrard’s loyalty to picking Coutinho even when Buendia was in better form and creating more chances. Perhaps that was merely a tactic to convince Coutinho to sign permanently, but Villa fans should hope that team selection is a meritocracy this season. If Buendia and Coutinho can’t both be accommodated in the same XI, it leaves Gerrard with a mighty difficult decision.
Finally, Villa have raised almost £40m through the sales of three players (Matt Targett, Trezeguet and Carney Chukwuemeka) who would all have struggled for regular first-team minutes next season. Chukwuemeka’s departure is a shame, but he was out of contract next summer and reportedly refusing to extend that deal. Given the spending, Villa really had to generate some revenue with sales.
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An interesting one. The assumption, given that the board have allowed Gerrard to invest heavily in this team (and that they paid so much compensation to get him out of Rangers), is that they believe they have the right man to take the club forward in the long term. He has been in place for eight months and has already spent £80m on new players, recruited two other free transfers and paid Coutinho handsomely.
But Gerrard hardly fired last season, even with the January investment. Between his appointment and the end of the season, Villa took 35 points from 27 games. There was no linear progression in that run; slow start did not become consistent improvement. Gerrard’s team took nine points from their last 11 league games in 2021-22.
That isn’t sustainable. Villa have pursued a level of investment on wages and transfer fees (although Jack Grealish’s sale mitigates much of that) that indicates they want to be pushing for European football. If the same issues continue to dog Villa this season, at some point the decision makers or the supporters will get a little itchy.
Prediction
Strong start, fall away a little, respond to take Gerrard out of any trouble and end up just fine. 9th
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The post Aston Villa predictions 2022-23: What fans can expect from Premier League season as pressure mounts on Gerrard appeared first on inews.co.uk.
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