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Likely strengths
After three years under his management, we broadly know exactly what to expect from Graham Potter’s Brighton. He will aim to keep them defensively well-organised and restrict their opponents’ high-quality chances. Brighton ranked eighth for shots and shots on targets faced last season, but sixth for expected goals against. They defend deep, invite crosses and back themselves to repel them. The midfield will be workmanlike to assist in that mission, shuttling opponents out wide.
One of the aims of Potter’s strategy is to make Brighton ludicrously efficient when they take the lead; it makes them double down on the same approach. We should expect that to continue: Brighton took the lead in 15 league games last season and only dropped six points in those games. You try to break them down at your peril, committing more players forward and making yourself vulnerable to the counter-attack.
When Brighton do push on, it is their wing-backs that are most effective. This column initially congratulated them for seeing off Manchester City’s interest in Marc Cucurella, but it does now seem that Chelsea are circling. Tariq Lamptey will hopefully be ready for a full season after injury, but Brighton will need another left-back.
Finally, Brighton are the best club in the division at bringing through new players. Last season it was Enoch Mwepu and Moises Caicedo, the year before Tariq Lamptey and Alexis Mac Allister. In a team whose style is so set in stone, it is with these new players that Potter adds the crucial unpredictable element. Denis Undav and Julio Enciso may be this season’s breakouts.
Likely weaknesses
Brighton were the fifth-lowest scorers in the top flight last season but ranked ninth for shots. Their supporters don’t need this explanation; they know more than anyone that Brighton have long been desperate for a high-class striker.
The issues are two-fold. Firstly, Brighton’s style of play – ostensibly safety-first – reduces the amount of high-quality chances they tend to produce. They do not overload in attacking areas and it isn’t rare for their centre forwards to be left isolated for long periods of matches. Secondly, their strikers (and this has been going on for several years) have proven themselves to be deeply inefficient finishers. Last season, Brighton ranked 18th for shot accuracy and 19th for efficiency, with only seven per cent of their shots ending in goals.
When you fail to create many big chances and miss too many of the ones you do create, you aren’t going to score many goals. Both Undav and Enciso both arrive with excellent goal records in lesser leagues. Who knows if they can address the established problem or merely prolong it.
Also, the flipside to Brighton being so successful in defending their leads is that they don’t actually get in front often enough. To an extent, this is an offset of their style, but it’s still slightly alarming that Potter’s side only took the lead in 15 league matches last season. Only Watford and Norwich, both relegated, did so less often. Potter’s task is to be a little more courageous without losing what works so well.
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Undav was already a Brighton player before this summer, but joins the club after being loaned straight back to Union Saint-Gilloise in 2021-22. He is clearly a gamble at a budget price (£6m) but had a prodigious goal record in Belgium and, at 26, at least should arrive fully formed. He will be expected to lead the line this season, probably supported by Danny Welbeck or Neal Maupay, who has been linked to Salernitana in Italy.
Brighton’s other two signings fit their typical recruitment model perfectly. Julio Enciso is an 18-year-old Paraguayan striker who arrived for a fee of £10m from Libertad; expect him to get infrequent minutes and possibly be loaned out in January. Kaoru Mitoma is 25, a Japan international winger who will at least have an understanding with Undav having been loaned to the same club last season.
Holding onto Cucurella would be the best bit of business. Brighton’s model of buying low and selling high works best, they believe, if you only sell one star asset every summer. With Yves Bissouma already sold to Tottenham, Potter and the club were unwilling to lose another first-team staple unless the offer was considered irresistible. Maybe Chelsea’s bid constitutes that.
There is a sense at Brighton that next year is always the year in which they peak. Has that suspicion changed this summer? Not really – their attack is still a work in progress. Does that detract from their watchability? Absolutely not.
Managerial security
It’s hard to know. Everyone at Brighton knows how lucky they are to have Potter and knows how much credit they deserve for creating an environment in which he can flourish. They will accept the runs of sticky form, partly because they trust him to overcome them and partly because supporters still pinch themselves that they are an established Premier League club.
The issue is that Potter could easily be poached. As Brighton improve, the pool of potential vultures gets smaller, to the point that it now probably only includes the “big six” and the England national team. But at some point, when one of those drops into crisis, they will look in Brighton’s direction rather than abroad. Which only makes it more important for Brighton to cherish Potter while they have him.
Prediction
A slight drop, but only because those who finished below them have spent bigger. 11th
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The post Brighton predictions 2022-23: What fans can expect from the Premier League season after key players depart appeared first on inews.co.uk.
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