It was shortly after England had reached the World Cup semi-finals in Russia 2018, when Gareth Southgate was starting to feel slightly more comfortable in his England manager skin, that he first raised the issue of the startling lack of eligible players featuring in Premier League teams.
An average of 33 per cent of players in the 2017/18 season were English, Southgate revealed, dropping to a shade below 29 per cent at the start of the following season and falling to below a quarter during the weekend after which he was speaking in December. The statistics were “incredible”, he said, adding that it was “a conundrum we have to solve.”
And Southgate soon found that he could be an important part of the equation to solve that particular problem. By giving talented, young English footballers a chance in his side when they perhaps weren’t playing so much for their club, he was able to show that they could cope in big matches and pressure situations. Mason Mount, the Chelsea midfielder who is now one of the most highly-rated players in the world in his position, is perhaps the prime example.
Yet this week, four years later and in the week in which he will name his squad for the upcoming Qatar World Cup, Southgate has an entirely new problem at the opposite end of the spectrum that is possibly even harder – maybe impossible – to solve. Expectations are higher than ever, but he now has too many good players from which to choose.
Noise this week is, understandably, loudest around the in-form James Maddison. The Leicester City attacking midfielder could barely have made his case stronger than by earning two assists for Leicester’s goals against Everton on Saturday. And in a table of most goal involvements from English players in the past 14 months that circulated widely on social media afterwards, Maddison, with 30 (18 goals and 12 assists), sits well clear of Bukayo Saka, with 27, Mount, 25, West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen, 24, Phil Foden, 23, and Raheem Sterling, 22. Fan-favourite Jack Grealish is towards the bottom of the list, with only seven.
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Gary Lineker has been flying the Maddison flag for months, and over the weekend alone was joined by Alan Shearer, Gary Neville, the Redknapp father and son. Lineker and Jamie Redknapp have both described the impending omission as a “travesty”.
Yet it’s also conceivable that — injuries permitting — Southgate could pick two strong starting line-ups capable of challenging in Qatar, and Maddison not feature in either of them.
He is the extraordinarily creative player who doesn’t quite fit into Southgate’s systems especially well. Neither a central midfielder capable of the required defensive responsibilities, nor that comfortable on the wing, the two places he would have to slot into if he were selected in the England manager’s customary 3-4-3 shape.
And while he’s undoubtedly outperforming Sterling, who has a modest five goals in 19 appearances since moving to Chelsea in the summer, does Southgate drop a player who has so often turned up for his country when it counts and was largely responsible for the team reaching a World Cup semi-final and European Championship final in successive tournaments? In a word: no. Does Southgate drop Foden, arguably the best young player on the planet right now? Again, no.
Yet Maddison is far from Southgate’s only awkward challenge before Thursday: he faces increasingly difficult calls across his squad. His go-to players are either not sparkling, barely playing or struggling with injury. Sterling, as mentioned, Harry Maguire, Reece James, Kalvin Phillips, Kyle Walker are all doubts for one reason or another. Ben Chilwell is already ruled out injured.
Potential England starting XIs without James Maddison
First choice:
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire; James, Rice, Phillips, Shaw; Foden, Kane, Sterling. (3-4-3)
Second choice:
Pope; White, Dier, Tomori; Alexander-Arnold, Bellingham, Mount Chilwell; Saka, Abraham, Grealish. (3-4-3)
Meanwhile, Southgate has Maddison, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ivan Toney, Fikayo Tomori and others, plus their legions of supporters, champing at the bit for their inclusion.
For an increasingly vocal percentage of England fans, Southgate’s already had his time. No matter who he picks or what transpires in Qatar, anything short of winning the World Cup will not be good enough. And if Maddison is left out, it will be the stick used to beat the England manager with at every slight wrong turn or minor setback. A 0-0 in a game they should’ve won. A lack of goals, despite tournament progression. A defeat in the final that wasn’t bold enough.
Southgate is in a real bind, his well-laid plans torn up in front of his own eyes due to no fault of his own on the eve of an already unusual and unprecedented winter World Cup. From a dearth of English players in the Premier League to an abundance, both of players and conflicting opinions.
Still, just as you wouldn’t expect a leopard to change its spots, don’t expect a Southgate to start facing North, West or East just as the winds of popular opinion are blowing strongest.
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