Wales head into the final round of group stages fixtures at the 2022 World Cup with only a slim chance of progressing to the knockout stages, and could need two results to go in their favour if they are to avoid being sent home early from Qatar.
Robert Page’s team are competing in their first World Cup in 64 years, but have struggled to assert themselves so far, taking just a single point from their opening two fixtures.
In their opener against the USA, Wales conceded first as Christian Pulisic played a smart pass through to Timothy Weah inside the penalty area, and the Lille striker slipped a tidy finish past Wayne Hennessey. But Gareth Bale gave the travelling fans a moment they will never forget when he equalised from the penalty spot late in the second half, the Red Wall behind the goal at the Ahmed bin Ali Stadium sent into delirium as their talisman crashed his spot kick past Arsenal’s Matt Turner.
That could have been a turning point for Wales, but their performance against Iran in the second round of matches was meek and mediocre. After being fortunate not to concede when an Iran goal was ruled offside in the first half and when the ball hit the woodwork twice in the second, they were eventually punished in stoppage time when first Rouzbeh Cheshmi and then Ramin Rezaeian scored to give Carlos Quiroz’s side the three points.
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England’s 6-2 win over Iran and subsequent 0-0 draw with the USA means they top Group B as things stand with four points, while Iran are second with three, the USA are third with two, and Wales are in fourth with their solitary point.
Goal difference could play a role in deciding who progress and who goes home – the World Cup uses goals scored and conceded to sort out teams who are level on points rather than head-to-head record.
How can Wales go through?
Let’s start with the simple part – Wales must beat England if they are to have any chance of going through to the last 16 in Qatar. If they draw or lose, they are going home.
The rest depends on the outcome of Iran vs USA in the other fixture in Group B. If that match ends in a draw, then Wales need to beat England by any score to progress, as they and Iran would both be left on four points, but Wales’ goal difference would be superior.
However, if either Iran or the USA win in their clash, Wales’ task becomes more difficult. An Iran win would take them to six points, while a USA victory would put them on five, putting them out of reach of Wales. So, Wales would need to progress by knocking England out instead. England’s impressive goal difference means that Wales would need to win by at least four goals to go through in that scenario.
How will Wales line up vs England?
Manager Page will not only need to set Wales up with winning in mind, but with the potential to score plenty of goals if that four-goal winning margin is required.
Hennessey’s red card in the latter stages against Iran means Leicester City’s Danny Ward will come in to play in goal, while Joe Allen’s late cameo after returning from injury means he could figure in Page’s plans from the start, and players who have only featured from the bench so far, including Nottingham Forest’s Brennan Johnson, could also come into contention.
Wales have used their regular 3-5-2 system in both matches so far, but after one draw and one defeat, Page could potentially be tempted to switch to a 4-3-3.
Potential Wales line-ups:
- Ward; Mepham, Rodon, B. Davies; Roberts, Ramsey, Ampadu, Wilson, N. Williams; Bale, Moore (3-5-2)
- Ward; Roberts, Mepham, Rodon, B. Davies; Ramsey, Ampadu, Allen; Bale, Moore, Johnson (4-3-3)
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