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What is likely to go well?
Given the apparent deliberate austerity that governs the transfer strategy of Luton Town and Sheffield United, Burnley are certainly the best-placed promoted club to survive relegation (and that should always be the ceiling of ambition in your first campaign). Burnley won the Championship comfortably, have bought more players than the other two promotees combined and probably have the most capable head coach.
Do not underestimate how important Vincent Kompany’s personality and experience is here. “Knowing the league” has become something of the snide punchline, but Kompany’s experience in pressurised situations, and his success during them, mean something when your playing squad is low on Premier League experience.
Finally, through his contacts in Belgian football Kompany has assembled a group of young, technically capable footballers who dominated the second tier and are itching to impress in the Premier League and shock those who are still breathing the fumes of Dyche-era Burnley. We’re getting distinct Thomas Frank-Scandiavia-Brentford vibes here.
What is going to be a challenge?
After the rampant positivity, a little circumspection. Firstly, Nathan Tella was Burnley’s top scorer last season, which leads to two immediate conclusions: 1) the gap between the Premier League and the Championship is growing all the time, because Tella had never been prolific in the top flight; 2) Burnley might really struggle for goals, because Tella’s parent club Southampton quite fancy him replicating his 2022-23 season for them.
There’s also the issue of style. The most successful promoted clubs are those who have either sacrificed possession and looked to play on the counter attack or who had quality to compete on their own terms. Last season in the Championship, Burnley had an average possession of 64.6 per cent, almost 7 per cent higher than the team third by that measure. It is reasonable to ask whether that possession-based, short passing and then quick transition football can be replicated after promotion.
Still, Kompany has earned our trust and so has this squad after taking 101 league points last season. Expect Burnley to compromise on their possession, but to look to spring quick counter attacks as soon as they win possession high up the pitch and build out from the back when they don’t. Here’s a statement that would have seemed nonsensical two years ago: Burnley are the most fascinating team in the Premier League this season, for better and worse.
How has the transfer window gone so far?
It has been fun and busy, and that’s not just referring to Burnley’s social media admin trawling 1990s film and TV clips for their announcement videos. James Trafford looks a superb goalkeeper for the future, and Burnley did well to steal a march before the Under-21 Euros. Zeki Amdouni is a gamble, given the fee, but Burnley have transformed their scouting department and merit our trust. Darran O’Shea is a useful extra body in defence to accompany Jordan Beyer, whose move from Germany has been made permanent. Nathan Redmond offers Premier League experience in a squad that has precious little.
But even with Michael Obafemi also making his loan deal permanent, we can’t ignore what Burnley have lost. Tella scored 17 league goals and a permanent move to Turf Moor now looks unlikely. Ian Maatsen was the best left-back in the Championship last season and he’s gone back to Chelsea (for now). Taylor Harwood-Bellis has every chance of being a senior England international central defender and, again, he remains back at his parent club Manchester City. All three made more than 30 league starts for Burnley last season and will be badly missed.
Key player
This is a team in the true sense of the word, but Burnley are going to need Josh Cullen to step up his level again, just as he did last season. In the Championship, Cullen was the one-man-band midfielder who passed, tackled, dribbled and created chances. Look at those unheralded stars of two successful promoted clubs last season – Harrison Reed (Fulham) and Philip Billing (Bournemouth) – to understand what a difference those over-performing central midfielders can be.
The manager
Kompany’s managerial career got off to an inauspicious start when player-manager at Anderlecht, leading to a degree of circumspection when he was appointed at Turf Moor. He was tasked with overhauling a playing style and coaching culture over the course of a single summer in his first full-time job back in England. “Good luck” was the general message.
And Kompany achieved it. He persuaded Burnley supporters that this was something meaningful to believe in. He transformed Burnley’s playing style, training methods and tactics into something daring, bold and aesthetically rewarding. And he produced one of the most entertaining and effective Championship teams in history, almost on the fly. That’s why he’s being pencilled in to replace Pep Guardiola.
Prediction
Staying up is the only aim, but Burnley really can make this work. 15th
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