There is a reason why Spain vs Netherlands has been scheduled for 2am UK time: because it is 6pm in Los Angeles and the World Cup organisers were certain that not only would the USA win their group, they would actually make it to the last eight.
But apart from the surprise omission of the Americans – and the presence of Colombia as England’s opponents – the last eight has a familiar appearance to it.
Here we run the rule over the quarter-finalists – and who we think will progress.
Spain vs Netherlands
For every good reason that Spain should not be here, there is a better one why they could yet pull off an unlikely triumph at this World Cup. Last year a treaty of 15 players refused to be selected under coach Jorge Vilda.
The fact that three of them, Aitana Bonmati, Ona Battle and Mariona Caldentey, are not simply back in the fold but inspiring one of the most potent attacking forces of the tournament suggests that quality can still triumph over all that has happened since last summer’s Euros, when they were knocked out by England in the quarters.
Three hit past Costa Rica, five past lowest-ranked nation Zambia, and another five past Switzerland in the last-16. But then there is the horrorshow of the 4-0 defeat to Japan – their biggest in 13 years – which threatens to undermine everything else, not least because they had almost 80 per cent of the ball.
In one sense, Netherlands are in the same boat. We are yet to see how good they really are. Topping their group at the expense of USA looks less impressive now, and neither South Africa nor Vietnam provided real tests.
Yet they are considerably less predictable since Andries Jonker took charge. Mark Parsons battled with how best to use Vivianne Miedema and that is a conundrum his successor does not have, with the Arsenal forward ruled out of the World Cup with an ACL injury.
Like so many nations, there is a feeling the Dutch are conflicted between a new generation – they have three uncapped players in the squad – and the likes of the outgoing Stefanie van der Gragt and Danielle Van de Donk; the latter is suspended for this tie and so will almost certainly have played her last World Cup match if Spain win. Jill Roord and Lieke Martens are likely to pose their greatest threats.
i predicts: Spain to win 3-1
Japan vs Sweden
Japan are the only team to win every game at this World Cup and Sweden knocked out the defending champions, so this is probably the tie of the round based purely on tournament form. That is a surprise in itself: Sweden got dismantled against England at the 2022 European Championship and Japan were eliminated by China at the Asian Cup. On the basis of the last few weeks, that last result is unfathomable.
Japan have been the most striking team in this competition because of the emphatic, apparently telepathic, cohesion between every area of the team. Their passing, attacking movement and defensive organisation give them the air of an excellent club team. It should make them favourites for the competition, yet they are longer odds to win it than Spain, the side they humiliated 4-0 in the group stage. That’s hard to work out.
It’s far harder to work Sweden out. They needed a late winner against South Africa, hammered Italy, laboured past Argentina and then knocked out the USA, although they were second best for most of the game and were lucky to get to penalties. To an extent that reflects how Sweden play, safety-first and through slow, exact football. But it’s not particularly entertaining and the suspicion is that Japan might swat them aside.
i predicts: Japan to win 2-1
Australia vs France
In terms of the excitement they are gathering, France have perhaps paid the price for their “reverse-Germany”, starting their tournament with a whimper against Jamaica before unleashing Kadidiatou Diani and the veteran Eugenie Le Sommer.
They have now made a statement: that even without Marie-Antoinette Katoto and Delphine Cascarino, they are outsiders, but contenders.
in a statement that even without two of their key forwards, they remain a dark horse. In reality, they might have been so much more than that had their build-up not been so badly disrupted by – yet another – squad mutiny against former coach Corinne Diacre. That was the game-changer, and Herve Renard saw enough in the job to quit Saudi Arabia’s men’s team for a shot at glory with his homeland.
Australia, by comparison, are blissfully uncomplicated. There will be critiques of the level of public consciousness surrounding this World Cup – but the attention it has garnered has been overwhelmingly positive.
The 80th minute of their last-16 tie against Denmark ought to have felt even sweeter – now, though, the desperation for Sam Kerr’s return is mitigated by the fact Arsenal duo Caitlin Foord and Steph Catley have stepped up in her absence. Hayley Raso, Emily van Egmond, Kyra Cooney-Cross and 20-year-old Manchester City forward Mary Fowler have all raised their profiles, too. Of all their potential semi-final opponents, the Matildas have become the one team England would most like to avoid.
i predicts: Australia to win 2-1
England vs Colombia
Three weeks ago, Colombia were the 20th highest-ranked team at the upcoming World Cup, had won one match at that tournament in their history and had won one of their previous six games, 2-0 against a Panama side who were outside the world’s top 50. When captain Daniela Montoya said in May that the aim was to reach the final, it was a pipe dream. Now who’s laughing?
There were signs, albeit easier to see with hindsight. Colombia beat Germany to top their group at the Under-20 World Cup in August 2022 (that would be incredibly prescient) and they also reached the final of the Under-17 World Cup last October. Linda Caicedo starred at both tournaments and is the leader of a new conveyor belt of talent that can take Colombia to the top of their continent, if not quite the world.
Coach Nelson Abadia will stress to his players that they are the perfect team to shock England. They possess the pace and directness out wide that Haiti used to hit England on the break. They have the physical presence to hold their own, as Nigeria did in the last-16. And they have the biggest travelling support of any team at this World Cup. They will have seen the blueprints of others and know that the pressure is all on their opponent.
That said, England will be a different beast by necessity. The absence of Lauren James will force a change of personnel and perhaps shape too. Sarina Wiegman knows Colombia’s strengths and knows too that England have not yet clicked in this tournament other than against – a dismally passive – China. With teams no longer knowing that James will be the one to drop into the half spaces, England may once again become unpredictable and able to express their dominance.
i predicts: England to win 1-0
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